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> [LLMs] won't get any better.

Can you pinpoint the date which LLMs stagnated?

More broadly, it appears to me that LLMs have improved up to and including this year.

If you consider LLMs to not have improved in the last year, I can see your point. However, then one must consider ChatGPT 4.5, Claude 3.5, Deepseek, and Gemini 2.5 to not be improvements.

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Sept 2024 was when OpenAI announced its new model - not an LLM but a "chain of thought" model built on LLMs. This represented a turn away from the "scale is all you need to reach AGI" idea by its top proponent.

If September 2024 marks the date in your mind stagnation was obvious, surely the last improvement must have come before?

Whatever the case, there are open platforms that give users a chance to compare two anonymous LLMs and rank the models as a result [1].

What I observe when I look for these rankings is that none of the top ranked models come from before your stagnation cut off date of September 2024 [2].

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.04132

[2] https://lmarena.ai/

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