Imagine: function F() { for (i = 0; i < 10; i++) { A(); B(); C(); } }
If we profile this code, we might find out, e.g. B takes the majority of the time--let's say 90%. So you spend hours, days, weeks, making B 2X faster. Great. Now you removed 45% of execution time. But the loop in the outer function F is just a few instructions, it is not "hot"--it won't show up in profiles except for ones that capture stacks.
If you're just stuck in the weeds optimizing hot functions that show up in profiles, it's possible to completely overlook F. That loop might be completely redundant, causing 10X the workload by repeatedly computing A, B, and C, which may don't need to be recomputed.
There are bazillions of examples like this. Say you find out that a function is super, super hot. But it's just a simple function. There are calls to it all over the code. You can't make it any faster. Instead you need to figure out how to not call it at all, e.g. by caching or rethinking the whole algorithm.
> How could measuring be a substitute for thinking/analyzing/predicting/forming a plan?
This happens more than you think. Understanding how the system works in enough detail and also at a high level to formulate a plan is in short supply. Jumping in and hacking in things, like a cache or something, is surprisingly common.