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Comment by pydry | Hacker News Reader

Given that the world is fast deglobalizing there will be a flood of factory work being reshored in the next 10 years.

There's also going to be a shrinkage in the workforce caused by demographics (not enough kids to replace existing workers).

At the same time education costs have been artificially skyrocketed.

Personally the only scenario I see mass unemployment happening is under a "Russia-in-the-90s" style collapse caused by an industrial rugpull (supply chains being cut off way before we are capable of domestically substituting them) and/or the continuation of policies designed to make wealth inequality even worse.

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The world is not deglobalizing, US is.

The world is deglobalizing. EU has been cutting off from Russia since the war started, and forcing medical industries to reshore since covid. At the same time it has begun drive to remilitarize itself. This means more heavy industry and all of it local.

There is brewing conflict across continents. India and Pakistan, Red sea region, South China sea. The list goes on and on. It's time to accept it. The world has moved on.

navel gazing will be shown to be a reactionary empty step, as all current global issues require more global cooperation to solve, not less.

the individual phenomena you describe are indeed detritus of this failed reaction to an increasing awareness of all humans of our common conditions under disparate nation states.

nationalism is broken by the realization that everyone everywhere is paying roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of their income in taxes, however what you receive for that taxation varies. your nation state should have to compete with other nation states to retain you.

the nativist movement is wrongful in the usa for the reason that none of the folks crying about foreigners is actually native american,

but it's globally in error for not presenting the truth: humans are all your relatives, and they are assets, not liabilities: attracting immigration is a good thing, but hey feel free to recycle tired murdoch media talking points that have made us nothing but trouble for 40 years.

Allow me to refer you to Chesterton's Fence:

> There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, 'I don't see the use of this; let us clear it away.' To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: 'If you don't see the use of it, I certainly won't let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.' [1]

The problem with anti-border extremism is that it ignores the huge success national borders have had since pre-recorded history in building social cohesion, community, and more generally high-trust societies. All those things are precious, they are worth making sacrifices for, they are things small town America has only recently lost, and still remembers, and wants back. Maybe you haven't experienced those things, not like these people you so casually dismiss have.

> Global connectedness is holding steady at a record high level based on the latest data available in early 2025, highlighting the resilience of international flows in the face of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty.

https://www.dhl.com/global-en/microsites/core/global-connect...

Source for counter argument?

Source for counter argument is in the page that you just linked here. You have cherry picked one sentence.

"Nothing to see here, folks! Keep shipping your stuff internationally!"

> The world is deglobalizing.

We have had thousands of years of globalising. The trend has always been towards a more connected world. I strongly suspect the current Trump movement (and to an extent brexit depending on which brexit version you chose to listen to) will be blips in that continued trend. That is because it doesn't make sense for there to be 200 countries all experts in microchip manufacturing and banana growing.

But doesn't make sense to be dependent on your enemies either.

>We have had thousands of years of globalising.

It happens in cycles. Globalization has followed deglobalization before and vice versa. It's never been one straight line upward.

>That is because it doesn't make sense for there to be 200 countries all experts in microchip manufacturing and banana growing.

It'll break down into blocs, not 200 individual countries.

Ask Estonia why they buy overpriced LNG from America and Qatar rather than cheap gas from their next door neighbor.

If you think the inability to source high end microchips from anywhere apart from Taiwan is going to prevent a future conflict (the Milton Friedman(tm) golden arches theory) then I'm afraid I've got bad news.

>It's never been one straight line upward.

Agree, but I never said it was.

>If you think the inability to source high end microchips from anywhere apart from Taiwan is going to prevent a future conflict (the Milton Friedman(tm) golden arches theory) then I'm afraid I've got bad news.

Why are you saying that? Again, I didn't suggest that.

Much of the globalized system is dependent upon US institutions which currently dont have a substitute.

BRICs have been trying to substitute for some of them and have made some nonzero progress but theyre still far, far away from stuff like a reserve currency.

Yeah you need a global navy that can assure the safe passage of thousands of ships daily. Now, how do you ensure that said navy will protect your interests? Nothing is free.

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