> If you forced me to put a number on how much more productive having copilot makes me I think I would say < 5%, so I'm struggling to see how anyone can just assert that "the rational argument right now" is that I can be 200% more productive.

If you're thinking about Copilot, you're simply not talking about the same thing that most people who claim a 200% speedup are talking about. They're talking about either using chat-oriented workflows, where you're asking Claude or similar to wholesale generate code, often using an IDE like Cursor. Or even possibly talking about Coding Agents like Claude Code, which can be even more productive.

You might still be right! They might still be wrong! But your talking about Copilot makes it seem like you're nowhere near the cutting edge use of AI, so you don't have a well-formed opinion about it.

(Personally, I'm not 200% productive with Coding Agents, for various reasons, but given the number of people I admire who are, I believe this is something that will change, and soon.)