Yet, $1T was nevertheless a profound underestimation.
We in aggregate seem to have developed a collective amnesia due to how fast these trends move and how much is burned in keeping the hype machine going to keep us on the edge. We also need to stop calling LLMs different just like every kid wants to claim mark zuck was diff or bill gates was diff so dropping out like them would make these kids owner of next infinite riches.
After a long decade of fast moving “this will truly revolutionize everything” speech every so often, we need to keep some skepticism. Additionally, the AI bubble is more devastating than the previous as previous money was being spread into multiple hypes from which some emerged silent victors of current trends but now everything is consolidated into one thing, all eggs in one basket. If the eggs break, a large population and industry will metaphorically starve and suffer.
Similarly, the current LLM vendors and cloud providers are likely not where the money will ultimately be made. Some startup 10-15 years from now will likely stack a cheaply hosted or distributed LLM with several other technologies, and create a whole new category of use cases we haven't even thought of yet, and that will actually create the new value.
It's basically the Gartner hype cycle in action.
This latest AI hype cycle is also about 10 years old and about $1T invested, and yet it's still a super-massive financial black hole with no economy-wide trillion dollar boost anywhere in sight.
The internet broadband, fiber, and cellular buildout changed the world significantly. This LLM buildout is doing no such thing and is unlikely to ever do so.
Let’s circle back in 2032 and see how much of this was “hype”.
I think that google image search is a really good example of useful results from the overall AI boom.
I do remember talking to someone in 2016 about the possibility of an AI winter if the image stuff didn't work out, so clearly I'm not the right person to talk to about that.
How much is "the internet" an industry? It's an enabler and a commodity as much as electricity or road networks are. Are you counting everything using the internet as contributing a sizable share to the internet industry's value?
We've now got 10 years and about a trillion dollars invested in this latest AI bubble, and it's still a super-massive financial black hole.
Ten years and a trillion dollars can make great things like happen. AI ain't that.