The irony is how would this have played out if it _did_ turn into a thriving project under CNCF? In that scenario, the NATS brand would have substantially more value and equity. That would have made a relicensing even more impactful, made it even more difficult to claw back from CNCF, and even more controversial. Because NATS remains relatively niche, I suspect the thinking is that not enough people will really care for it to matter, but if that's the case, why not just make a proprietary fork under a new name?
I don't know how this situation doesn't result in a fork. Either the BSL will be a fork or the OSS will be a fork. But because nearly all of the contributors are Synadia employees, I don't know what this will mean for the longevity of the project.