Though the sky is the limit. The typical machine I would order had a list price of about 1 million. Of course no one pays list. Discounts can be pretty substantial depending on how much business you do with IBM or how bad they want to get your business.
It's easier and harder at the same time to buy older hardware. That's half the challenge though because the software is strictly licensed and you pay per MIPS.
Here's a kid who bought a mainframe and then brought it up:
Previous generation machines that came off-lease used to be listed on IBM's web site. You could have a fully-maxed-out previous-generation machine for under $250k. Fifteen years ago I was able to get ballpark pricing for a fully-maxed-out new machine, and it was "over a million, but less than two million, and closer to the low end". That being said, the machines are often leased.
If you go with z/vm or z/vse, the OS and softare is typically sold under terms that are pretty much like normal software, except it varies depending on the capacity level of the machine, which may be less than the physical number of CPUs in the machine, since that is a thing in IBM-land.
If you go for z/os, welcome to the world of metered billing. You're looking at tens of thousands of dollars in MRC just to get started, and if you're running the exact wrong mix of everything, you'll be spending millions just on software each month. There's a whole industry that revolves around managing these expenses. Still less complicated than The Cloud.
But IBM _does_ have their own mainframe emulator, zPDT (z Personal Development Tool), sold to their customers for dev and testing (under the name zD&T -- z Development and Test), and to ISVs under their ISV program. That's what IBM's own developers would be using if they're doing stuff under emulation instead of LPARs on real hardware.
(And IBM's emulator is significantly faster than Hercules, FWIW, but overall less feature-full and lacks all of the support Hercules has for older architectures, more device types, etc.)
There was some of a legal fight between IBM and Turbo Hercules SSA, a company that tried to force IBM to license z/OS to their users. IBM has been holding a grudge ever since (probably at the advice of their legal).
Could they just list prices? Sure. Will they ever do it? No.
(SCNR)