I mean, the view I have is that at the time of the LBO
nobody knows for sure what will happen.
The PE firm knows what they plan to do. The lenders know in a general sense what the PE firm plans to do, along with the track record of that firm's other LBO's and loans. Even if the outcome of bankruptcy is fairly certain, it's hard to predict how long it will take until that happens.
The point I'm making is that if you only look at the failures, LBO's look like a bust out. But I don't think the entire concept of an LBO is a bust out, which is why I don't think the lenders are dumb for underwriting these loans.