Hacker News Reader

Comment by wewewedxfgdf | Hacker News Reader

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are:

* creation of computers

* personal computers

* the Internet and world wide web

* LLMs

So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blockchain or garbage like that.

View on HN

If the personal computer counts, do mobile phones count?

I would certainly think so, except all those high quality sensors have been hindered by app stores and subpar apps, imo :-(

I would like to hear some uplifting stories about creative things people do with their phones, rather than consume media

I almost think deep learning and mobile phones had an analogous and surprising applicability

Deep learning failed to solve self-driving. In 2012 people said self driving would probably be ubiquitous by 2018, and it definitely would be by 2020

Instead we got chat bots in 2022 - that turned out to be the killer app, certainly the most widely adopted one

Likewise, instead of mobile phones being used as an aid in the physical world, they became the world

For example, the media they transmit seems to be how elections are won and lost now. It’s the device by which people form impressions of huge parts of the world

Speaking as someone who just rebuked another commenter for daring to suggest Dijkstra’s algorithm should be on that list… yeah you may have a point. Mobile phones probably belong in the S-Tier with the Internet.

In 2012-2014 I lived in Thailand right as the Smartphone Wave was cresting. I saw people who had never owned a computer leapfrog laptops and get online for the first time (on their own terms) with a cheap smartphone. And sure, many of them just went straight to instagram, but also a generation of working class Thai nerds got access to Wikipedia at their leisure, and that has no doubt led to uncountable good things.

> I would like to hear some uplifting stories about creative things people do with their phones, rather than consume media

Ever since the iPhone X introduced infrared face tracking I’ve been using them in live theatre shows to drive digital characters. Here’s me and my friend Jordan playing 3 “AI Gods” during the Baltimore Rock Opera Society’s 2019 show Space Kumite using an iPhone X for facial motion capture: https://youtu.be/wSYWC1GCZA8?si=RtWDODFwHxEnaB9u

Miniaturization is a common trend.

Once modern computers appeared, smartphones became just a matter of time.

One could say that sucessful miniaturization is one of the tells that something is more likely to stick around.

Thank you, great example of creativity with a phone!

I used to download and play with the music apps, but I didn't like how the music was "stuck" there

the majority of global internet users access the internet via a phone.

Pretty arbitrary list, no? You could replace "LLMs" with various technologies that seem important (particularly at the beginning of their existence before their true value is determined). Why not: C, cloud computing, neural networks, Dijkstra's algorithm, WiFi, FFT, etc?

Its a matter of opinion who cares what I think - if your list includes those things as fundamental changes that redefined society and technology then that's valid.

All I am saying is that LLMs are amongst the most revolutionary changes that break new ground and completely change the world - in my personal opinion.

Yeah I guess my point was there's a lot of opinion involved, especially at the moment. Which can play into the hype cycle. Full disclaimer I am an LLM semi-doubter so of course my opinion skews in that direction. We should see what the future evidence shows for the value of LLMs. Part of what the article touched on is historically the evidence often doesn't back up the hype, hence their disappointment.

LLMs could be one of the most revolutionary changes. The problem is that LLMs as a phenomenon are mostly wishful thinking and an acceptance of downgraded quality and reliability.

Sometimes they do useful things. But the gap between "sometimes" and "reliably" is not trivial.

It's honestly rather culty. I can see the hope that mistakes in today's vibe coding will be fixed by future vibe coding, which will be better in every way.

But it's not a given that's going to happen. Not on the evidence so far.

5 years after Dijkstra’s algorithm was invented, could non-tech people look back and see a huge impact on their everyday lives? No.

Of the things in your list, WiFi is the closest to rising to this level, but even WiFi can’t claim to be as big of a deal as the Internet (unless you’re being extremely cute).

Your list is all A- and B-Tier stuff. Definitely important, but not on the level of like, the personal computer. LLMs are likely on the S-Tier with the other things GP mentioned. Within a month of its release ChatGPT had 100 million users. Everyone in my life can tell me a way they’ve been affected by LLMs.

We can argue about whether LLMs are/will be good for humanity. We cannot argue about whether they’re a big deal, they are undeniable.

You raise good points and I want to dig into it more.

One counterpoint is that LLMs are still young. I think it's preemptive to proclaim now that LLMs are world-changing when we really don't know how they will affect us in the future. For e.g. the internet, it's undeniable that it changed the world because now everything is so much more interconnected than it was 30 years ago. The internet has become a foundational element of technology. Will LLMs do the same? Surely we don't know.

Second counterpoint: "everyone in my life can tell me a way they've been affected by LLMs". Can they? How are they affected, for real? Everyone is certainly talking about them, does that necessarily mean the impact is large? Honestly for me life is basically the same and I'm a developer! Still go to the same job, SDLC is largely the same, my hobbies are the same, eat the same food, etc. The important day to day is the same. Except that I code a little faster, have a fancier search / problem solving tool, and every now and then I see a crappy AI gen image. Compare to e.g. the internet which has undoubtably changed day to day by drastically reducing physical interaction between people and systems.

wifi is radio though

Smartphones deserve to be on that list as a technology which fundamentally affected the way we interact, and once you realise that you also understand how important WiFi is.

I'd say it was closer to 25 years from the invention of the personal computer to the point it made an impact on everyday life.

You could replace LLMs with Excel. Shit, even today, people are probably just using LLMs to populate excel sheets for consumption later lol.

LLMs are at this point almost 8 years old (dating from the Attention is All You Need paper). If it's truly a revolutionary technology, you should be able to point me to a company leveraging LLMs to make absolute bank, leaving all of its non-LLM-based competitors in the dust.

But instead, what I see in this thread in defense of the revolutionary ideals of LLMs, is how good future LLMs are going to be. That's not a sign of a revolutionary technology, that's a sign of hype. If you want to convince me otherwise, point to how good they are right now.

Large Language Models are not 8 years old. GPT-3 or arguably GPT-2 is the first LLM.

Moreover, I can think of 0 revolutionary technologies that did what you've said in such timelines. The Internet, Smartphones, The Steam Engine - the idea that revolutionary technology is created and everything changes in an instant is bizarre fiction.

And how well would you know really? Not everyone using LLMs internally is screaming about it from the rooftops.

Steam locomotives: the first practical steam locomotive was Stephenson's Rocket in 1829, although maybe you want count from the earlier locomotive developed for the Stockington and Darlington in 1825. In either case, by 1830, there was already a successful company producing steam locomotives, and everyone pursing the building of railroads were using or imminently planning to convert to using steam locomotives for tractive power.

Naval technology can be even more stark. HMS Dreadnought was a revolution in terms of battleship design; all the major naval countries were building dreadnoughts before she was completed (actually, a few started before she was even laid down!).

That's a feature you see a lot of revolutionary technologies experience: even the earliest incarnations have enough "wow" factor to push people to using them and improving from the get-go.

>That's a feature you see a lot of revolutionary technologies experience: even the earliest incarnations have enough "wow" factor to push people to using them and improving from the get-go.

ChatGPT alone had over 400 Million weekly active users in February (and seem to have hit 500M) and was the 6th most visited site in the world last month.

This is software that was introduced to the public in Nov of 2022. To put it frankly, it's the fastest growing software service ever.

Google, Youtube, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter were the only sites with more visits. It's close enough to Twitter that it may well overtake it this month.

It's not up for debate. LLMs absolutely have that "wow" factor.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/02/20/ope...

https://x.com/Similarweb/status/1909544985629721070

https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/viral-trend-drives-c...

I don't know who's making money with it, but are you using Google search more than you're using an LLM at this point? Most people I talk to aren't.

* creation of computers

* personal computers

* the Internet and world wide web

Full stop.

There, I fixed the list in a way that will stand the test of time.

Just because you don't like LLMs doesn't make them not revolutionary with regards to how people use computers.

I like LLMs, I am rooting for them.

They will be revolutionary and join the list once the technology stands the test of time.

There you go. A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters.

They've been around for years now. Obviously not as long as the others, but years nonetheless. What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future?

The only pattern I can see is it being potentially unsustainable, but I find it hard to believe that, considering I can run an LLM that is more capable that SOTA from 2 years ago on a single box in my living room.

> What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future?

The same thing that makes me think that it could: I do not have a crystal ball.

It's a simple test. Have patience. With your tone, even if you are right and it stands the test of time, you will look like a tool.

It's those with your attitude, in a state of constant smug denial, who look like tools right now. We'll see how it goes in a few years, but I doubt that will change. The constant goalpost-shifting as LLMs keep getting better and better is becoming embarrassing, and even if they stopped getting better from now on, which is certainly not the case, their impact on communications is on the same order of magnitude as that of the WWW. The curmudgeons I work with are too stubborn to realize that LLMs have moved past GPT-3, and most of the haters on HN sound the same.

I am ok looking like a tool right now.

That is the goal of a hype trend. To make even healthy skeptics feel like they are missing a great thing.

I am actually an early adopter though. I just don't like bragging around.

Researchers know that most "goal posts moved" are actually great challenges. It would be sad if they saw it as pessimism.

Think of it as a more creative way to engage in the hype.

Skeptics are more valuable than blind believers. You want a blind believer testing your airbag or a skeptic that will move some goal posts to try and sniff out any bugs?

> A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters.

So you're saying we need more datacenters ~ Jensen Huang, probably

GPUs might actually make the list before LLMs.

One could argue that it is the fourth item on that list, since it is a technology that is standing for a long time by now.

There are so many items I'd put on the list before LLMs tbh. It's not even worth the time having the conversation. My quality of life went up much more in the dial up to dsl transition. I wouldn't say DSL to fibre was as much of a jump, e.g.

Anywho, that quality of life jump to DSL ultimately led to the enshitification of the internet I knew and loved and now I'm stuck talking about LLMs I wish didn't exist - I would trade the conveniences of today for the internet of the 2000s any day. I genuinely view us on a downwards QOL trajectory re: technology, even if it feels more novel and useful in the moment. Every new novelty in tech that makes life easier for us seems to actually further degraded the human experience of the internet. I don't know how to reconcile this trend with LLMs as being "great".

It really feels like the more we do "good" to "progress" information technology breakthroughs, the worse the entire field feels. Much shallower, less personal, and dumber.

Sorry for the rant.

To define what a breakthrough is, is hard.

A "gaming PC" defines how GPUs are important. General people know something there ticks different, specialists know, industries know. It matters. It matters for a long time now.

"Broadband" was a hype, temporary. Once people understood that the speed is the thing, not any name, it stopped mattering. Now every couple of years there's a mini "new broadband tech" but it's all the same. Of course the tech is important. But revolutionary? I don't know. It boils down to being what is defined as generally "the internet".

I think the easiest way to define it would be to take it a way for a bit and see how the world changes.

If we sent people back to dial up, the world would probably stop working.

If we took away LLMs, GPUs, the base world will probably keep chugging along outside of financial markets. Just IMO.

So, the test of time then? Sounds good to me!

Hey, COBOL stood the test of time. In software, it was revolutionary.

when dial up was initially the new thing you could also take that away and the world would keep chugging, same for phone lines, same for electricity. but you take away something the world has had time to become dependent on and suddenly the world has a harder time.

The worlds dependency on LLM tools just hasnt had time to develop and that doesnt mean it wont. most people here are likely on the bleeding edge of utilizing them. most people not paying attention will just use it like they use google or not at all, until tools are built and they dont even realize they are using an LLM, or using a service that is dependent on an LLM.

Most people here, unless researchers actually browse HN (unlikely, that would be a dumb move), are equivalent to notepad bleeding edge users in regards to LLMs.

If you don't train LLMs, you are just an user. I am sorry, that is the reality and it is cruel (for now).

If "prompt engineering" becomes a thing, it means the tech is less impressive than it declares itself to be.

It should be a natural language based interface. I will trust it and learn natural language instead, worst thing that can happen is I learn to communicate better (actually a good thing).

Take it away, leave it. Does it really matter in the context I presented?

you are going straight down from researchers building the LLMs to prompt engineers.. and there is a massive gap in the middle which is what i was speaking about. When i refer to tools that utilize LLMs, im not referring to tools built USING an llm to create it. im referring to tools which will serve a product which itself utilizes the LLM.

to use the same past example as simply as possible, computers utilize electricity. in this case LLMs would be the electricity. (this isnt me saying LLMs are as revolutionary as electricity, just trying to make a very clear example)

Agreed, but it's also so very relative.

If nobody was paying attention to what the foundational companies have been doing for the past few years, I'm pretty sure I'd be a wild advocate singing their praises on these and other forums.

But since everyone is extremely into it, I just kind of watch and try to measure my expectations.

> LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history.

See, that’s what the article is about.

Saying LLM is on the same level of steam power, the computer, the internet, airplanes, etc. when the technology hasn’t even been around enough to have real impact, and all I read is extrapolation about how everything will be based on it “in the future” — that’s the definition of hype.

LLMs do about half of my work for me. Today I spent most of my time interacting with o3 and 2.5-pro and I have accomplished what would take me 3 days to accomplish in the past. That’s real impact.

LLMs can’t do anything for my work besides being an alternative to Google, and even then I need to double check on another source.

You get a lot of positive reinforcement from positive opinions online, but the people who don’t depend on this to work won’t be vocal about it.

If you are involved in knowledge work, please pay me to automate your job with LLMs for you. I’m able to take on any breadth of work thrown my way, so looking forward to your outreach.

Missing from the list is the daily march of improved silicon performance through 50+ years.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com