Hacker News Reader

Comment by newuser94303 | Hacker News Reader

I don't know why people keep thinking that China will attack Taiwan. It took HK and Macao without a shot. I think China is following Sun Tzu.

"subduing the enemy without fighting," is the epitome of strategic thinking in his book, The Art of War. This means achieving victory through cunning, deception, and maneuvering, rather than through direct confrontation and bloodshed"

They are increasing their military knowing that US military costs 4+x as much. It might be 4x better so don't fight. Just bankrupt the US. Trump wants a $1T military budget next year.

Why would China want to conquer the West? Buying what it wants is cheaper than an uncertain military battle fought with Nukes.

View on HN

What I still don't get is what could China possibly want with Taiwan?

Naval routes? Just negotiate and use money instead; it'll be cheaper than war.

Brainpower? Just offer higher salaries to come work in China.

Taiwan is a tiny island smaller than Florida with only 20m people.

1) Historical claims - the CCP views Taiwan as a breakaway province and considers unification important. After the Chinese Civil War ended in 1948, the defeated Republic of China (ROC) government fled to Taiwan while the CCP took control of China.

2) Political legitimacy - successful unification would be a nationalist victory for the CCP

3) Strategic importance - key geographic asset. It lies in the first island chain, a line of US-aligned territories that can potentially restrict China's naval access to the Pacific. Control over Taiwan gives China more leverage over sea lanes critical to global trade and security influence in East Asia

4) Economic, technology bonus points - Taiwan is a global tech powerhouse, especially in semiconductors. TSMC is the world's leading chipmaker.

5) Global power dynamics - unification would weaken US influence in the region

1-2 really just do not matter; I can't imagine anyone in the CCP views that as more important than their own internal matters.

3 as I said, they can just negotiate and throw money at the problem; it's cheaper than fighting a war.

4 they can already buy hardware from them and was doing so just fine before US stepped in. DeepSeek seemed to do fine and China may likely surpass Western AI development in the near future

5 I don't see how that's the case when the US has very little presence in TW compared to SK or JP. Taiwan is a hair on a gorilla's right knee.

Just answering your question "What I still don't get is what could China possibly want with Taiwan?".

If you don't believe the rational I sketched, informed by analyses such as that by the Council of Foreign Relations[1], you can also learn more by reading directly from China's Mission in the EU about the China One principle: http://eu.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/more/20220812Taiwan/20220...

[1] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tens...

They can say and write whatever they want, it just doesn't make any logical sense like the US getting all worked up over Cuba.

Nationalism makes it very easy to make it seem like (1) and (2) matter even if they don't.

If you want a semi-serious example, check the "Taiwan #1" gaming video on YouTube for a taste of Chinese nationalism.

Read certain declarations by Chinese ambassadors in Europe for more serious nationalistic takes.

1 and 2 are the biggest reasons by far and matter a lot. Dictators are people too, they are susceptible as anyone to their minds being poisoned by too much nationalism. And even if it wasn't for that they would still view it as a way to get back flagging support from a nationalistic public(even dictators need a minimal amount of support from the population).

They do see Taiwan as an internal matter, that's the problem they don't recognize this sovereignty and don't like or understand Democracy. It's like Russia with Ukraine but they'll also claim Taiwan isn't a country because even most western nations technically don't recognize them. It makes me think we made a mistake not recognizing Taiwan as it's own country back in the 90s when China was less powerful.

Throughout Chinese history, all invasions of China from the sea had a staging area in Taiwan.

This is the main reason.

Regardless of the reasons (mostly political rather than rational, as my sibling comment laid out), the beach invasion barges we've been seeing are IMO a dead giveaway of intent and resolve to take Taiwan. Between that and American fecklessness, if I was Taiwanese I would be shitting my pants.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com