Comment by Animats | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Animats | Hacker News Reader

Since last night, anyway. The people who make shipping work are frantically trying to keep up. One of the biggest customs brokers posts updates twice a day on weekdays. Last update 4 PM Friday, so they haven't caught the biggest reversal. If tariff rates change while in transit, the bond paid before the item was shipped may now be insufficient. So the container goes into storage (where?) until Customs and Border Protection gets paid. Some recipients don't have the cash to pay. Low-end resellers who order on Alibaba and sell on Amazon, for example.

Port operators hate this. Unwanted containers clog up the portside sorting and storage systems. Eventually the containers are either sent back or auctioned off by CBP, like this stuff.[1]

Some shippers outside the US have stopped shipping to the US until this settles. This includes all the major laptop makers - Lenovo, Acer, Dell, etc.[2] Nobody wants to be caught with a container in transit, a big customs bill due on receipt, and storage charges. That will recover once the rates are stable for a few weeks. Probably.

Customs and Border Protection is trying to keep up. Sometimes you have to pay more because Trump raised tariffs. Sometimes you can get a credit back because Trump dropped tariffs. Those are all exception transactions, with extra paperwork and delays.

Where's the Flexport guy from YC? He should be able to explain all this.

Consumer version: expect to see some empty shelves, rejected orders, and higher prices for the next few weeks.

[1] https://bid.cwsmarketing.com/auctions/catalog/id/167

[2] https://www.techspot.com/news/107504-trump-tariffs-force-maj...

Somebody lost a ton of Bitcoin miner system motherboards [0][1].

[0]: https://bid.cwsmarketing.com/lot-details/index/catalog/167/l..., https://bid.cwsmarketing.com/lot-details/index/catalog/167/l..., https://bid.cwsmarketing.com/lot-details/index/catalog/167/l...

[1]: https://www.biostar.com.tw/app/en/mb/introduction.php?S_ID=1...

Bitcoin miners tend to be ASICs nowadays. Based on the PCIe lanes I would assume that is for some GPU-mining mobo for equihash or scrypt

I can guess, but I'm just echoing what's on the box, or what Biostar says. :)

https://bid.cwsmarketing.com/lot-details/index/catalog/167/l...

I love that I can buy a pallet of miscellaneous medical supplies, and also that someone who specifically wanted them but now can't pay for them has to go without.

The point is to inflict cost to create incentive for domestic production. Obviously the inconsistency on tariffs undermines this position but the pandemic made it very clear that there are domestic security implications for not having important products produced state side. Its not like the $500 cost of a saline bag has anything to do with its production cost. It seems credit liquidity and confidence in long term protectionism are needed for this scheme to work. This requires unity, which we lack.

As you say, the inconsistency on tariffs completely undermines this position, because it's widely known that tariffs which change radically from day to day don't incentivize domestic production (and indeed disincentivize all domestic investment). Doesn't this prove that creating incentives for domestic production is not the point, and either there's no clever scheme or the real goal of the scheme is something else?

The point is to replace income taxes with tariffs. Domestic production is "desired" but this is not how to rebuild domestic production capability.

> Domestic production is "desired" but this is not how to rebuild domestic production capability

No need to be handwavy. It can be part of a strategy. A painful and ultimately less effective way than another, sure. There will be a lot of factors at play beyond these controls. This administration lacks the ability to focus for very long in any competent sense. I'm not sure there is a strategy that will work, at this time.

I'd really like to see a coherent strategy from somebody on rebuilding American manufacturing.

Bad ideas:

* Tax cuts for the rich will make it happen.[1]

* More tax cuts.[2]

* High tariffs with no plan.[3]

Semi-reasonable ideas:

* Clairmont study.[4]

* McKinsey study (2017).[5] Hasn't held up well.

Manufacturing is low-margin and requires stable markets. How to promote that? There are a lot of dull and boring businesses someone has to do.

Maybe tax policy should be set up to favor dividends over growth. That favors steadily profitable companies over growth companies.

[1] https://waysandmeans.house.gov/2025/01/24/the-golden-age-of-...

[2] https://nam.org/timmons-nam-members-meet-with-bessent-congre...

[3] https://x.com/cspan/status/1909639514861322433

[4] https://dc.claremont.org/restoring-american-manufacturing-a-...

[5] https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/americas/making-i...

Per product class protectionism installed for new products, then work up the supply chains. Protect electronics, cause electronics go into all thingd, thenprotect homegrown machine suppliers. aka copy chinese growth strategies

So we’d replace income tax with a regressive tax on consumption

I’ve ran the numbers in a bunch of ways and I don’t think they’re much if any more regressive than current income tax, given the rich avoid income past a point and spend a lot more on goods in the middle band, even percentage based. If you want a better progressive tax you’d need to focus on capital or spending on luxury goods and services.

Congratulations, you have rediscovered VAT

Sarcasm completely unnecessary.

Ryan Petersen was on the Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast a few days ago.

Nice.

Not much optimism for domestic manufacturing or US exports.

> Consumer version: expect to see some empty shelves, rejected orders, and higher prices for the next few weeks.

Make that the next few years at this rate.

> Customs and Border Protection is trying to keep up.

There are still people there? DOGE hasn't hit them up?

Why would they? If there’s one agency that’s spiritually aligned with DOGE — in terms of incompetence, malice, and sheer cruelty — it’s ICE/CBP.

Update: Possible pending reversal today (Sunday) on temporary exemption to emergency China tariff for computers and smartphones.[1][2] Trump and the Secretary of Commerce are saying different things on social media. Trump says he will look at the "whole electronic supply chain." The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg are trying to keep up with the announcements.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-...

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-13/trump-say...

Hang on are tarriffs not effective on date of purchase? I'm not American but it seems madness to apply them at any other time as then no one knows what will actually need paid if you've someone like Trump changing them frequently.

The infrastructure for handling all the tarrif payments and rebates etc simply can't change as fast as these announcements and as a result there will be a whole mass of incorrect charges being applied or not applied that could takes years to sort through. The chaos is the point, or so it would seem.

They are effective on the day of passing customs to the US

Applied at time of passing through customs.

More typical policy would give 90 days notice so businesses could plan ahead. This policy was implemented far too fast with far too high of numbers and now it’s also changing rapidly. It doesn’t make sense.

> I'm not American but it seems madness to apply them at any other time

I’m American and I fully agree it’s madness. This administration clearly doesn’t understand or even care how businesses work. They just thought this was going to be a chest-thumping bargaining chip that caused other countries to come begging at the negotiation table.

It’s not working and now they’re panicking. They don’t want to look weak by backing down so we’re suffering.

Trump has been spouting the same shit about trade deficits and the US getting ripped off for several decades. I think he legitimately believes high tariffs are a good idea to "fix" trade deficits.

It’s not about trade deficits-it’s about becoming an independent manufacturer again. Whether or not anyone international buys what we make is secondary. Wealth is disproportionately allocated to those that benefit from globalization but the vast majority of Americans are hurting from it, even if a OLED TV costs nickels.

How do these tariffs help the vast majority of Americans? Maybe in a half a decade-decade time they can get a job in some factory as a tech??? Except there's so much uncertainty and so much tariffs even on raw material that it doesn't even make sense from that perspective.

Raising prices on everything is not going to help the majority of Americans. Taxing the rich might have but half the rationale for these tariffs is tax cuts for the rich.

There is no plan or logic to this.

Was there a plan and logic to outsourcing those jobs and leaving half the country to fend for itself and beg for handouts though?

Yes, cheaper goods and more profits duh. If Walmart and others can pay as low as possible wages and shift burden onto the state and it's legal they'll do it. And they did.

There's a lot more to manufacturing than "just" being a line assembly worker.

The factories have to be designed and built. This includes all of the manufacturing processes, equipment, tooling, automation, etc. All of which are done by reasonably paid, middle class engineers and trades.

Then you have all the 2nd order businesses that get stimulated. Energy must be provided. Mines, mills, refineries, etc. to make the raw materials. The packaging for the end products. Logistics for supplies and end products.

All of the value above used to be in the US but has been captured overseas for decades now.

Who is going to build a factory when there's a fifty percent chance the tariff plan changes the next day? Or a refinery? Or a mill? Or a mine?

That is a valid use case for tariffs. I'm not convinced the evidence supports that being the reasoning in this case though.

Development of manufacturing takes time. If that were truly the logic behind the tariffs, wouldn't it make more sense to slowly ramp up tariffs on particular categories of goods with a long notice period to allow time for industries to develop?

Also why all the talk about "punishing" other countries for "taking advantage" if the real goal is to bring manufacturing home?

Development of manufacturing also means not tariffing the steel that's required to make the machines to make the things.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-pr...

If you think that Trump's goal is to help the average person at the expense of the capital class, I have a few bridges to sell you.

If they scream NO in the same loud voice they do on taxes, something is working.

The vast majority of Americans will be hurt even more when product prices double just to subsidize a handful of jobs. If there's such strong interest in ensuring some people have a salary—regardless of the cost to everyone else—we might as well drop the pretense and just pay them directly.

Except, of course, if we did that, the government wouldn't be able to hand those factories over to their friends or political allies. That's the real feature of these "industrial policy" moves, not a bug.

Argentina has been running a nearly identical playbook for decades: impose high tariffs and taxes on imports, hand out subsidies to politically connected local manufacturers, and claim it's all in the name of "national production" and "job creation." The result? Inefficient, uncompetitive factories that only survive because they're protected from global markets. Consumers get stuck paying absurd prices for low-quality goods, innovation dies, and the overall economy stagnates. The only real winners are the cronies who cash in on state favors.

If the U.S. goes down that same path, just like Argentina, it's not going to end in a manufacturing renaissance. It's going to end in inflation, stagnation, and a bunch of overpriced junk no one wants to buy.

Right. The normal way this works is that when you buy something to be imported into the US, you compute the tariffs and post a "customs bond" with CBP at the same time you pay for the product. When the shipment arrives in the US, the customs bond is used to pay the tariff, and the shipment is released by CBP. Shipping companies such as DHL integrate this into their systems so the end user doesn't have to deal with it directly. To the purchaser, it looks like tariffs are paid when the product is ordered. That's the happy path, taken by most imports.

But when tariffs change faster than it takes to get the shipment from source to destination, the bond won't be for the right amount. You then enter the wonderful world of "insufficient bonds". Here's "Understanding Insufficient Customs Bonds in Nine Easy Steps", which outlines the process and tries to sell you on a service that deals with the problem.[1]

Coming May 2: the end of "de miniumus" customs exemptions for small packages under $800 value. Goodbye, Shein, Ali Express, and dropshippers. Unless, of course, the rules are changed again.

[1] https://www.afcinternationalllc.com/customs-brokerage-news/u...

So does the trump tarif noise average out to something you can plan with ?

No

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