Will there be a winner at all? Perhaps it's going to be like cars where there are dozens of world class manufacturers, or like Linux, where there's just one thing, but its free and impossible to monetize directly.
Unlike Linux, which was started by a cranky Finn on his home computer, and can still be built and improved by anyone who can afford a Raspberry Pi.
Redhat and SUSE are multi-billion dollar Linux distro companies.