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Comment by svg7 | Hacker News Reader

While I have no doubt that insider trading happens quite regularly, I would not jump to that conclusion here. IIRC the previous day, big Wall street names were advocating for a pause in tariffs . So a lot of people placed bets accordingly. Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders.

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> So a lot of people placed bets accordingly

But why not earlier in the day? Why this unique volume spike then? The one $2.5M is just a sample trade, part of a historic spike.

No one's jumping to conclusions, but it should trigger an investigation.

Has it even been confirmed that all the trades are the same entity? Or is it the usual momentum play?

Everyone is jumping to conclusions. The majority of comments on this thread are assuming this is at least someone with inside knowledge, and several are saying Trump or his administration are directly involved.

But these rumors were said and talked about several days. But no big options trade was made before the actual day of announcement. That’s why it’s telling.

> Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders.

Why? A secretary or janitor or a intern could also be an insider. Or are they No True Scotsmen?

Yes, in theory, anyone can be an insider. But folks up in the chain are much more likely to be "insiders with information". I should have probably said "very rich insiders" instead of "true insiders."

>Why? A secretary or janitor or a intern could also be an insider. Or are they No True Scotsmen?

I thought the article itself and comments here presume bad faith on behalf of the highest ranking officials.

Yes, sorry, I was only replying to the general point.

About the specifics we have here:

It's sad that the highest ranking officials are willing to corrupt themselves over a few million here or there. (And that's already pretty high by corruption standards. Usually you here of even much lower bribes etc being enough.)

To be pithy: I'm not angry that you can buy officials and politicians. I'm angry that the price is so low.

2.5M on 0 day options is not small change at all, even for somewhat big players.

0 day - means it's a win big or loose 2.5M on a single day move.

Is it 2.5M notional (that's not necessarily a lot, especially if the options aren't (much) out of the money), or 2.5M premium paid?

2.5M premium paid

That was just one of many trades. The follow-up has deatils of many more https://data-and-politics.ghost.io/this-is-what-insider-trad...

Sorry, I was just replying to the general point. I am sure there's lots more details for this particular case.

Could a test run by "very rich insiders". To gauge the system's reaction before the next one, possibly a deal with China.

>Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders.

Well, if it was insider trading, Trump and his billionaire friends wouldn't invest just 2.5 million. That's a meager sum for the very wealthy.

Maybe they've even done insider trading but in ways that weren't so obvious.

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