Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking What's Now Happening Is Mostly About Tariffs | Hacker News Reader

Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking What's Now Happening Is Mostly About Tariffs

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10 pointstosh5 comments

Pre-trump: Why does China need US debt? They can be paid US $ for stuff then buy US assets like stocks instead? Then they get rich without worrying if they get paid. (Assuming the US doesn't break down basic corporate norms and confiscate assets)

Paper assets are only meaningful because an army or police force says they are meaningful.

If police and militaries disappeared overnight, then stocks would have no value. Guns would have value and food would have value. Ability to produce these things have value, but paper and whats on it has no value. Moving physical objects has value.

In war, all of these things on paper don't matter compared to physical reality and how it is crafted.

So investing creates a dependence on the American enforcement system which would not enforce in china's favor in case of a war. In some ways investing in a foreign country weakens your own sovereignty and it definitely weakens sovereignty as Putin or Xi would define it.

Unfortunately it’s easy to say something is happening due to certain forces, but much harder to propose solutions. Here, Dalio provides no such advice.

The world ought to come together in a way to collectively navigate a US-exit. That is the only solution I can see. It will not be palatable to Trump, who will probably want Europe, China, and India to become isolationist themselves.

Interesting times.

omfg, it's a dump and pump scheme. come on Ray, tell it as it is. it's 2025, for Judas sake

Just remember that Ray Dalio is compromised.

He may speak the truth, but he speaks only truths that Chinese communist party allows.

He made massive bet on China. Large chunk of his personal assets are now tied in China and Bridgewater is the largest foreign asset manager in China. He was able to wiggle out some of them, but he is still tied there.

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