https://archive.nytimes.com/well.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/1...
https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/s0025-6196(16)...
Something like that seems to have the best outcomes (will it help you not die?) and it fits with how I feel. Running more than once a week always made me get worn down. My best 5k time came from running one long run a week and lifting weights the rest of the week. I was effectively just wasting my time with the other runs in the week. I don't suggest this for a real professional runner, but for weekend warrior types like me, I think it works well. And I have won my age group before in a race, so I'm not a total novice.
This is about 50 % beyond what I would normally be doing, and a couple of times after upping the volume I did get close to backing off because I felt like I was overdoing it, but after pushing through for a week I started recovering again.
The difference in my fitness is almost unbelievable. I can knock out 160+ km rides with no problem when in previous years I would have found them very difficult.
And beyond just results on the bike, I feel much better in myself, even than when I was doing 10 hours per week. I never get out of breath, hills I used to walk up with the dog I now realise I am walking up breathing through my nose the whole time, I handle heat much better, my resting heart rate is in the mid-to-high 40s, I have more energy, etc.
If your goal is to do well at the local 5 km run in the park then lower volume is probably fine, but in my personal experience I still don’t think I’ve hit my limit even at 15 hours per week.
Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but the study seems to claim that running less than the recommended amount is still good, not that running more is necessarily bad:
> ...these highest runners still had trends of lower mortality than did nonrunners and only a nonsignificant trend of higher mortality than did the lower-dose runners (P≥.05). Therefore, until we have more compelling evidence on running doses and mortality, we should emphasize that “even a little is great” rather than debating whether “more is better or worse” from a public health perspective.