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Comment by cdavid | Hacker News Reader

Say you are meta. You know that a big stream of revenue is ads. You are an engineer working for one of the myriad ML model around feeds, ads click prediction, whatever. Those ML models are in production, and cost a lot of money to maintain / operate. How much you are a cost center or a money maker will depend on a lot of non objective choices.

The essential issue is attribution, which fundamentally requires some choices about how money is actually made. Even when everybody is in good faith, there are reasonable ways to agree. And people are rarely in good faith around those things.

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Ads are still bread and butter for Meta. The first to go will be the folks who are in vogue bcoz of cultural reasons, eg. diversity, green, etc. I would even go the extent of saying that a lot of open source maintainers will also be axed, the day Meta stops making ad money and fights for survival. The issue of `attribution` is to be decided at last, when anyway the house is partially burned and the company is fighting for survival. I am talking about the initial phase, where a lot of engineers work on teams that make no monetary/value sense for company and are there, bcoz manager/CEO don't care or are kind(mostly former).

Sure, but things like DEI, OSS, are tiny minority in most companies. At least they were in the companies I've worked at.

You mentioned that attribution is to be decided when house is burnt, but that certainly not my observation. Which department is responsible for what revenue is what senior leadership fights over all the time, whether times are good or not.

You have chosen a very very poor example in calling out Meta Ads. I can assure you that the entire org has a massive magnifying glass over it with insane amounts of data analysis, every % change in revenue is absolutely attributable to exactly what group brought it about whether it be DC hardware, ML teams, or backend infra. It is the lifeblood of Meta with many billions flowing through it of course it isn't just being cowboy'd with random changes that have undefined impact on yoy revenue.

I am not saying mature companies are "YOLO-ing" this randomly, but that many assumptions are made about how the input metrics trickle back to revenue/profits, and those can change. The attribution exists, but how it is done is far from an objective thing. E.g. how do you translate CTR into revenue ? How do you value an additional user ?

This can also be seen with cost saving. There are numerous examples on HN when people wonder why reducing the cost of something by X millions was not recognized (e.g. https://x.com/danluu/status/802971209176477696). Based on my own experience, most likely explanation is that's because there was no item related to this in the financial planning to be recognized.

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