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Comment by justanotherjoe | Hacker News Reader

I love how we're back to oracles interpreting sheep's entrails again. Goes to show how unilateral this all is when nobody knows what is going on. Do yourself a favor and stop trying to make sense of any of it. It doesn't.

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I wonder what the over/under is on the number of banks that will fail in the next 7 days and whether it will precipitate into a contagion vector.

Why would banks fail in the next 7 days?

All of the major Wall Street banks called in their staff over the weekend. Lots of margin calls going out due to the market losses so far. Monday will be another bloodletting day, so there will be a chance that some customers may go unrecoverable net negative. This raises the issue of counterparty risk, and everyone tightens up as a result. Capitalization then becomes key, and with losses flying around, the first one to breach will end up cascading the risk to others. 2008 all over again, and oh yeah, weren't there mass layoffs on the government regulators side a few months ago - so who's answering the phone or running due diligence on the government side to figure out who is salvagable and who isn't?

Currently we're observing a "normal" panic sell-off. This has nothing to do with what's happened in 2008, at this point it is more similar to the dotcom bubble burst or 2020 (market sell-off).

One might go even further and say that this crash is over-due and somewhat preditable. This doesn't put banks in immediate danger.

Or, this the beginnings of a sell-off as the rest of the world realizes that the US is no longer a reliable (trading/military/alliance) partner, and will move to mitigate the dependency for the rest of the world's mutual preservation.

Also - this implosion is happening WAY faster than the dotcom bubble pop and even 2020 COVID lockdown selloff, and there is no stimulus coming to save the market this time.

This was somewhat predictable, as Trump doing illogical Trumpian things, but somehow he even exceeded the maximum irrationality predicted by the market, thus, the heightened adverse reaction.

"Market" predicted he will remove consumer protections, environmental protections and that some companies will be able to profit from top level corruption. There fore "market" thought this will be good for them in the short term and went up.

He went off like an idiot on tariffs the very first weekend. Canada & Mexico if you recall.

I recall. They went up after election, before they realized he will do more then just enable white collar crime.

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