Ordinary people are on neither. The group which is on Twitter are politicians and they can decide to move to Mastodon if they want.
Most ordinary people are on neither
I guess that depends on location but I’ll refine my statement to say ordinary people are overwhelmingly more likely to be on Twitter than Mastodon.
That's circular, though: the more services become available elsewhere, the easier it is for people to switch.
People don’t move to places without ordinary people for “services”. That’s not how social networks work.
In my experience it is the other way round. The reason people are on Twitter is because politicians are there. If they move the journalists and politically interested will quickly follow.
Ordinary people follow politicians on social media?
Truth social pretty much proves that's the case.
That's a pretty bad argument. For one the majority of people are on neither. For two, it's almost always about reading, and twitter doesn't let you read posts without an account.
Twitter was never really big in most European countries. I only have an account to follow AI hype and drama.
That maybe true for Meta services but Twitter was never really a thing in EU.