Would you argue that the period between 2003 and 2025 have strengthened or weakened the case for free trade?
Would you argue that the period between 2003 and 2025 have strengthened or weakened the case for free trade?
In the US this has happened:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA646N
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96
Meanwhile across the entire world this has happened:
https://ourworldindata.org/history-of-poverty-data-appendix
You can argue the growth of globalization & lowering of trade barriers were unrelated to this up-and-to-the-right, but it’s hard to argue they’re making things worse unless you really scope down to particular losers in a world of mostly winners.
Take the median US household by gross income in 2003 & compare it to that same household in 2025. The 2025 household will utterly destroy it across any economic or hedonic metric.
If you control for household demographics and generational immigration history the gap becomes even more dramatic.
1. Wealth inequality. Wealth inequality has exploded over the past few decades, and even if the median has gone up, the effects of widening wealth inequality can be very bad for society. First, as Charlie Munger once said, "The world is not driven by greed, but envy." Even if you're doing a little bit better, if everyone else is doing a ton better, this leads to you feeling like you're doing a lot worse. The rise of authoritarian politics in the West I think can be directly attributed by large swaths of society feeling left behind and like they are "getting screwed".
2. Related to the above, but finite resources, most especially land, are always vacuumed up by the wealthiest in society, regardless of any other level of incomes. So when there is a lot of wealth inequality, it can become prohibitively expensive to own land in any remotely desirable area, and this has huge negative societal effects (happy to go into this point more if you disagree).
3. The flip side of "optimized global supply chains" is incredibly brittle supply chains in the face of black swan events. Covid was a taste of this, though I think the global supply chain actually help up remarkably well for how enormous an impact Covid had. I think a better example would be something like chip production in Taiwan, which if it disappeared tomorrow would be absolutely devastating for the world economy.
4. Some countries that are now leaders in the world economy, like South Korea, had an extremely protectionist stance for decades in order to allow crucial industries to develop and not be undercut by cheap imports. I certainly don't think it's the only reason, but one reason Africa struggles so much is because they are flooded with cheap goods (or free goods in the guise of "charity") that prevent native industries from developing.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...
So something reversed the trend Buffett was seeing in 2003.
For the US specifically, various considerations:
* https://twitter.com/ArmandDoma/status/1908189982789095677#m
* https://www.csis.org/analysis/do-not-blame-trade-decline-man...
* https://archive.is/https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-trade-di...
But in 2025, tariffs are closing the barn door after the horse ran out, went to horse college, settled down, had some foals, and saw them grow up and move into their own doorless barns. But that's populism for you, always responding to the previous crisis with an approach that will enrich its sponsors and then cause the next crisis.
[0] The Republican party's fake "fiscal responsibility" where most of that money was just handed to banks instead, driving up the asset bubbles. I'm saying this as a general libertarian from a conservative Austrian economics view, not as a Democratic partisan booster. But blame where blame is due.
For the vast majority of people, I’d pick the 70 year-old version even if they did live to 90. With Buffet, I’m not so sure.