Recession Watch

calculatedriskblog.com

21 pointsb_emery3 comments

If the tariffs are not a dump and pump, there is at least going to be a recession.

Even if they are a dump and pump and Trump cancels or drastically lowers them before the 9th I still think we're going to have a very serious downturn and recession (and maybe worse if things go off the rails with escalations and other countries taking more drastic steps to isolate the US).

The uncertainty around what exactly they think this policy is going to achieve (that's remotely positive for anyone, especially the US) is in many ways worse than the tariffs themselves. And all of the other issues talked about in the article like the DOGE cuts are still going to be a problem even if Trump pinky swears he's done with tariff threats (which he of course won't do).

I have sold my US equities and assets before Trump announcement of tariffs.

I personally find it a lot more risky to keep my wealth in US equities or USD denominated assets. Even all the decisions are undone, the fact that these level of policy swings could happened make US investments a lot riskier than they were even a couple of months ago.

The behavior of the US executive branch shows that they don't care as before about the rule of law.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com