Hacker News Reader

Comment by mathfailure | Hacker News Reader

I'd like to correct you: wars don't happen when just one of the sides thinks they can win, they happen when BOTH sides think so.

I think that exactly for this reason Europe needs such a vaccine shot, so they stop they can win a war against Russia.

View on HN

But... they can? If Ukraine can fight Russia to a standstill, a fully mobilized Europe clearly at least has a shot. Unless it escalates to nuclear weapons and everyone loses... But you need at least an argument if you want to say that is less likely without any initial US involvement, it's not obvious.

Exactly. Europe thinks it may join Ukraine in a war against Russia to actually win that war.

My point is that this is quite a reason why a nuke war may occur.

And if U.S. turns back away from Europe - Europe might 'sober up' and not seek the prolongation of a conflict. Non-nuke wars end somehow. One side usually loses, without such a loss - there would be no end for the war and more and more people would die. A bitter ending is better than endless bitterness.

There's nothing in my comment to "exactly" in support of your point. If the US backs away from Europe it may be more likely to encourage Ukrainian surrender. Russia may be more likely to attack Poland. Germany may be more likely to develop its own nuclear deterrent. Or none of these things may happen. Extrapolating from tariffs to world peace demands a bit more than loose speculation at the continental level.

Surely there is:

> Europe clearly at least has a shot

I doubt Europe would be that cocky without a full support from their "big bro" from across the ocean.

As for attacking Poland - that sounds quite uncalled for: Poland doesn't have a meaningful share of Russian natives living there historically for the Poland to start oppressing them to the point Russia would start a war against Poland. I can't even think of any reason why Russia would attack Poland.

The Kremlin can come up with a rationalization for whatever their territorial desires are.

There is no modern international norm where a nation can use military force to invade or interfere with another nation because of ethnic natives in that nation being mistreated. This is another russian talking point that’s used as a justification for their intentional aggression and it has nothing to do with why they actually invade their neighbors.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com