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Comment by xnx | Hacker News Reader

Those odds must incorporate some expectations that recent actions get reversed (and quickly!). Recession is guaranteed if new rules stay in place.

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It's too late, these actions have shown how truly fragile and arbitrary USA policy is, and extreme anti-current-rules-based-order views are rampant in USA politics. Policy will be volatile and no multinationals or governments will want to deal with the chaos.

Reversing the actions would require either a 2/3 veto proof majority or Trump realizing he is wrong, both of which will probably take a while...

Two thirds of the Senate, only half of the House. Focusing on reversing just the tariffs is a waste of effort. The traditional ownership-class backers of the Republican party need to wake up to the reality that this bankruptcy enthusiast will only bring further destruction and ruin, start leaning on some congresscritters to buck the maggot party line, and depose this America-hating fuck. That's about the only hope of the United States being able to rebuild credibility.

I don't think this is quite true. Because these tariffs have been levied under the guise of a national emergency, they technically need to be confirmed by the legislature within X number of days. The House is playing tricks to not hold a vote, and I'm not sure if they need cloture in the senate, but I don't think they need 2/3 to slap the tariffs down.

That is true. X=150 under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which is the authority under which Trump is establishing the tariffs. After 150 days, someone could file a lawsuit to reverse the tariffs if there has not been any vote.

"None of these trade provisions empowers Mr. Trump to impose tariffs on all imports from all countries based on an arbitrary formula. Section 122 lets a President impose tariffs of up to 15% in response to trade deficits, but Congress must approve them after 150 days. Someone should sue to block his abuse of power."

Source: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-disturbance... (https://archive.ph/l2272)

Nope. The rider to the “clean cr” took care of that contingency.

https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres211/BILLS-119hres211r... - see page 4

OK but they still just need a majority in the house to undo that? And that is assuming that silliness isn't smacked down in the courts forcing them to hold a vote anyway.

It’s more that it absolves them from having to hold a vote to continue the “emergency”. I believe the emergency act requires congress to vote to continue the emergency after a certain number of days.

But the republicans know that would be embarrassing to hold a public vote to do so- so they sneak in shit like this, to continue to be cowards since they’re too scared to publicly endorse the cruelty.

OK so my original point stands, only a handful of reps need to defect. They don't need to meet the 2/3 veto threshold.

No-one’s seeing the impact yet (except for those who pay day-to-day attention to the markets, but that’s not a huge number of people), because nothing has actually happened yet. The tariffs go into effect on the 9th, and China’s retaliatory tariffs go into effect towards the end of the month; the EU’s retaliation will probably start hitting in May. Over the next month, it is likely that Americans will see prices go up dramatically, and significant job loss is likely. Considering how upset Americans got over expensive eggs, you’ve got to assume every congressperson is about to drown under a sea of angry calls and letters from constituents.

That might actually produce a veto-proof majority for undoing this, quite quickly.

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