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It's always "soon" for these guys. Every year, the "soon" keeps sliding into the future.

AGI timelines have been steadily decreasing over time: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... (switch to all-time chart)

You meant to say that people's expectations have shifted. That's expected seeing the amount of hype this tech gets.

Hype affects market value tho, not reality.

I took your original post to mean that AI researchers' and AI safety researchers' expectation of AGI arrival has been slipping towards the future as AI advances fail to materialize! It's just, AI advances have been materializing, consistently and rapidly, and expert timelines have been shortening commensurately.

You may argue that the trendline of these expectations is moving in the wrong direction and should get longer with time, but that's not immediately falsifiable and you have not provided arguments to that effect.

> and you have not provided arguments to that effect

The burden of proof lies on those with extraordinary claims. I am simply skeptical.

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