Though I'm counting that as future potential costs and deaths.

Ignoring the obvious opinion of the author, anybody who has ever worked on any sort of medium to large scale migration, refactoring or rewriting of a computer system knows that's a comically ridiculous timescale and when it inevitably fails there will be consequences, counted in both money and lives.

But that's a (very near) future fuck-up that he will almost certainly spin or move the goalposts for.

That you can draw a direct line to right now, not much other than all the cuts to critical infrastructure.

To be clear, I'm not arguing against cuts and efficiency initiatives, i'm saying he's an idiot who doesn't know what he's doing, so his implementation will be shoddy and dangerous.

See: The Cybertruck, The Boring Company, The Decline of X.

As you are implying though, nothing major so far, aside from USAID i suppose (or the VA), does removing systems actively (and provably) preventing deaths count?

These are systematic problems that will take a while to shake out into their inevitable consequences.

He'll probably still fail upwards though, unless he gets luigi'd or just drops dead of a ket induced heart attack or something.