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Comment by rafaelmn | Hacker News Reader

> What incentive does a company have to move a billion dollar facility to the USA when it will face reciprocal tariffs on any exported goods from the USA?

Access to the richest single market in the world ?

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> Access to the richest single market in the world ?

How long do they stay the richest single market in the world if rest of the global world are producing and trading at greater efficiency while the US are facing large short term supply disruptions, higher costs and reciprocal trading tariffs on their exports?

The majority of countries have a negative birth rate. The US is doing "OK" (stopping immigration is why I put it in quotes).

This is going to catch up to most countries very soon. The US will be in a small group of the ones last standing.

I don't think quotes are the appropriate modifier to adjust for the damage from draconian and short-sighted immigration policy. Past tense use of the verb is probably more appropriate since countries are issuing do-not-travel warnings against the US (for the first time ever?). This administration is arrogant fools all the way down. I hope the messages sent by the electorate in 2026 and 2028 are loud enough and the brain drain is still reversible.

The point of the quotes was that we wont see the outcome of these decisions until years from now. Which is why today it is still OK but its like the car speeding and then jumping off the cliff. Will it reach the other side or fall to its doom? Too early to tell, we are still watching.

How do you think economic turmoil is going to affect the birth rate in the US and how do you justify labelling a birth rate that's been below replacement for 18 years as "OK"?

We're already seeing the effects. Many people don't feel secure enough in their finances, or confident enough in the future they'd be bringing children into to have kids. As far as I can tell things will only get worse long before they even have a chance to get better.

If the 1930s are any example, war will follow, then a baby boom after the war

I wonder if the baby boom depends on who wins the war. If people are happy about the outcome, their finances are improving, and they are full of hope for the future it'd be easy to start families. If people aren't happy with the outcome, if they are suffering, if they have to live under more restrictions or a worse economy I doubt as many people will be comfortable bringing children into the world.

The problem with that line of reasoning is we are now in the nuclear age. After a major nuclear war, there will likely be no humans to have babies.

a war would likely involve nukes.

Please brother, don't make me imagine a world war with nukes. The whole world is going to collapse, It would take us atleast three century back and it would be the darkest chapter ever.

I think there are some really smart people in the world. We can use them to create beautiful discoveries. Seriously, it sends me shivers thinking of a world war, but it may happen, and I have no control over it. I have to just watch the world wither away.

I'm in that group. The thing is China already crossed that rubicon 20+ years ago. So the US only really needs to outlast China in this regard. It will create problems of its own and pro America people like Peter Zeihan argue that large generations create more large generations. Boomers -> Millenials -> Gen Alpha. I dont fully buy this though.

Their population pyramid looks good though compared to China:

https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...

https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2024/

Check back in a few years, right now its good, and we wont see results for at least a few years:

https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...

>how do you justify labelling a birth rate that's been below replacement for 18 years as "OK"?

The US being a nation of immigrants has this unique selling point of attracting people to make up for their woes such as birth rate. Unless we see millions of citizens getting deported, the people "voluntarily" relocating don't move the needle in this metric.

If the US is planning on stopping the thing that made them OK in the first place, why do you think they would be OK after?

That’s also before you get into the fact that stopping immigration into the US doesn’t make those people disappear * , they’ll immigrate to other countries or stay home may very well cause some countries with a declining population to stop or reverse that trend

* Not en masse anyways, that’s come later as more of a final solution

Thats why I put "OK" in quotes. It remains to be seen if the immigration moves will kill the 'get out of jail free' card the US and few other countries have had. These trends don't change overnight so we have to wait and see. At this time though their population pyramid is pretty good compared to their rivals. It might take years of continued decline to finally destroy the good thing they had going. Meanwhile China had 20+ years to rectify their problems and now its too late.

US: https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...

China: https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2024/

It doesn’t remain to be seen, we know the fertility rate for America isn’t high enough to maintain replacement rates without immigration. Here’s one article but you can find many with google https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/3/22/us-de...

The current admin is saying they are going to stop immigration. I don’t find it comforting or plausible if you’re telling me that we have to wait and see because they might fuck up one step of their plan and that’ll make the other steps less painful

I might die on this take. But you guys really think birth rate is some magic.

India has an overpopulation issue. In India, we literally have more people than jobs. So you guys could just tap into India.

China is also similar, except it has outgrown its master. So I can understand the mistrust. But america put tariffs on India as well which is just ... funny.

Also if america really falls into a recession (60% chance, like I mentioned in my other comment), how much do you think the US would be doing "OK"

I think what the US is right now, is failed democracy. I mean, I used to hate my government, but it was because of their political views/ I just felt that a tiny change in the Indian system is needed (like Media , incentives for middle class), I have hope in India. India can truly change if need be.

I have no hope for america.

But that only works if you compare the US with other single countries. The EEA is similar to the US, China will be larger than the US, India will be larger than the US. Any of those combine and you loose by a factor of 2, etc

EEA, despite decades of EU efforts, is not a single market. China and India are nowhere near in terms of purchasing power or individual consumption and won't be for decades.

> EEA, despite decades of EU efforts, is not a single market.

Huh? It really is. There's free trade and free movement of labour. How is it not a single market?

Language barriers.

We have 24 official languages, regulations/legal systems vary from county to county and we don't even have a common currency.

It's a lot better than having to deal with each county individually but still way more overhead than US.

But we don’t have tariff regimes. That what a common market means. It doesn’t mean that you can sell the same product to everyone. It just means that you can move that product everywhere. And even the regulatory regime is overwhelmingly European (that’s why you get manuals in 20 languages)

You don't have tariff regimes within the common market, that's true. You do have tariffs on goods that are imported from any country other than the 24 in the EEA.

US is as scattered with ecery state having their own legislation.

I think interstate commerce law is intended to minimize inefficiencies due to that? I'm not sure.

You're being obtuse. With those points I could argue the US isn't a single market either!

1. California has 10 million Spanish speakers 2. Every state has its own regulations and legislation (and taxes!)

But I don't think you would try to make that argument... right?

Free movement of labour and goods make a single market. The other stuff is just normal operational costs of doing business.

Also, and you know this: most of the EEA uses the Euro; the countries that don't are exceptions

Yeah. You really made an exceptional comment that I don't think anybody can argue with! Kudos!

Not currently in Germany.

amazon.de click 28cm lightweight bike wheel click Order click.

Well what do you know, you're a big fat liar :)

Tariffs aren't bans. They still have access to the US market, US consumers are just forced to pay higher taxes for these goods.

It's government eating into your margins - unless there's no domestic substitutes.

If these tariffs continue for 30 years, it's hard to know if we'd still be the largest single market in the world.

That's not going to be true after your facilities are built.

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