https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh...
https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...
Norfolk Island, an Australian community of 3000 with no exports to the US, gets its own 29% tariff. They're expecting a tourism boost from the publicity.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump...
A comparison would be another country putting a 10% tariff on the US, but singling out Rhode Island for its own 29% tariff.
Now what the underlying items are that were traded? Not sure. Guessing you can dig it up in AES https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/aes/index.html but have not been able to figure that out. Let me know if you do.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/04/revea...
"To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4.
Recent evidence suggests the elasticity is near 2 in the long run (Boehm et al., 2023), but estimates of the elasticity vary. To be conservative, studies that find higher elasticities near 3-4 were drawn on. The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25."[0]
[0] https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
By that logic, it looks like Pythagoras got his theorem from an LLM...
I'm convinced. this is fucking crazy.
It also has a separate country abbreviation (RE). You know, like you'd see on an address. The thing that tells you where something, like a good imported in to the United States, is coming from.
This is is why it has a separate ccTLD by the way.
This blue sky thread is just an incredible example of motivated reasoning.
Yes, obviously, it's ISO 3166-1 but that's a batshit way of assigning tariffs. To the point I suspect it's a LLM.
Norfolk Island? The island with 3000 people, which in the context of international trade is a speck at the side of Australia. Or the uninhabited Heard Island and McDonald Islands with zero trade?
If Reunion and Norfolk Island are to be considered separately from their mainlands, where are the tariffs for Easter Island (Chile)? It has more people than Norfolk and probably more trade, it's 3700ish km from the administrative region it belongs, so it geographically distinct like Reunion.
Anyone (with a pulse) tasked with calculating the tariffs would see this and think "I have to remove these outliers". So the two options are:
A. Someone took the ISO 3166-1 codes and brainlessly calculated their batshit formula without noticing that HM doesn't produce anything. They did not instead do the more natural thing, go from highest imports to lowest which would've eliminated HM and most anomalies. They didn't even check their work.
B. They asked an LLM, which calculated this in the most naive way possible one-shot.
I dunno governor, this looks like vibecoded Excel spreadsheets.
Easter Island's mailing address says Chile. Norfolk Island mailing address does not include Australia, nor does Reunion include French.
>They asked an LLM, which calculated this in the most naive way possible one-shot.
Whats the connection between LLMs and domain name endings or whatever again? Like why does using them necessitate the use of LLMs?
Let's think through it from the ground up... How would you expect them to come up with a list of countries? Are they supposed to just get a group of people together and compile a list of countries they can think of by memory? Clearly they will refer to some standardized list.
Lets see the prompt. The prompt further down in the thread that reproduces it was asking how to use tariffs to balance trade deficits with a 10% minimum. Is there any other answer then set the rate such that the deficit goes away or 10%, whichever is greater? No. That's just the answer to the question and is why ALL LLMs give the same answer.
Not perhaps Elon or Trump themselves (doubt Trump can actually use a computer), but it could very well be one of the teens like the so-called "Big Balls" that apparently have their hands in everything.
> This level of hyperbole is why reading about anything to do with the two of them is really exhausting
Almost as exhausting as their daily actions / tweets / rants.
A similar approach to a close-ended question.
The original screenshot doesnt show the prompt. The one reproducing it asks for a tariff policy to eliminate trade deficits with a 10% minimum. Umm... hello? There is only one answer to that. The greater value between 10% and a rate based on the deficit. Of course the Trump policy and all 4 LLM answers agree. The answer is determined by the question.
Its like accusing little Timmy of cheating on his math homework because he said 2+2=4 and -- GASP -- so do all the LLMs!
Probably from some random genius on reddit.
Then they incorrectly labelled these numbers as reciprocal tarrifs implying this is what other countries charge the US.
The worst of it is that all of this misinformation will be happily accepted as truth by so many people. It's now going to be almost impossible to have people realise the truth, especially those people who support Trump. Ugh.
NOW? It's been this way for close to 10 years.
Vietnam uses many US services such as Microsoft Office, Netflix, ChatGPT, Facebook ads, etc. This is revenue that directly go into the pockets of American companies.
Any tariff based on trade deficit needs to account for services.
The services we export are performed largely by white collar, college educated people. A good number of whom are here on H1-B visas. What service can an unemployed factory worker export to Vietnam? We have to end globalization of industry or wealth inequality will just continue to spiral.
“White collar” work is the majority of US employment. It’s unclear to me if you’re proposing sacrificing white collar for blue collar jobs, but that’s not a trade our economy overall wants to make.
Relatedly, the unemployment rate for US factory workers is 2.9%. This is a very low unemployment number - 5% is generally considered “full employment,” and anything below that indicates a labor shortage. So your hypothetical factory worker should probably just go get another job.
Things got better when we moved after a few years and she shifted into a healthcare job. White collar if you will.
It’s ok to be Republican/conservative and increase taxes now.
???
Of course not. The entire time Trump is railing against the deficit, he's talking only about goods. He wants to bring back manufacturing to America, didn't you hear?
No one asked him this shit on the campaign trail?
Total trade with Ukraine in 2024: $2.9bn
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia...
So, Ukraine will get an exemption, too, right? Because their trade is even a mooter point, right? Right?!
Fertilizer is not sanctioned due to the fact it’s needed for food security in the EU (surprise suprise, the EU is not just insecure domestically in terms of military and energy and technology, but also in terms of fertilizers needed to grow food, fantastic governance they have over there…leaving potash mining or nat gas extraction to other countries does look good for those domestic net zero calculations though!).
This policy dates back to the end of WW2 as an attempt to prevent one country getting too aggressive and hence starting another war.
Since the fall of the wall, Russia was seen as a legitimate trading partner for the block and, in the long term (just as Türkiye), as member of the block.
Hence sourcing fertiliser from Russia was taken to be a strategic positive since it tired Russia to Europe.
And you still defend this as a strategic positive?
Instead had I said this ten years ago, the majority of politicians in the EU would have been d’accord. What does that imply about our political systems?
There have been a bunch of alliances in Europe over the centuries, none have been permanent.
So... I think it was a good thing after all. It could've worked out, and bring us peace. A moonshot with great payoff but some chance of failing is often a risk worth taking, HN should know that :)
All those circumstances also would have made the point moot... yet they all still made the list.
> U.S. total goods trade with Russia were an estimated $3.5 billion in 2024.
Among European Union members:
> The total bilateral trade in goods reached €851 billion in 2023.
You can’t possibly qualify this shitshow as "peace negotiations"
Bro digitally simps for nations for political identity, and instantly folded under the lightest application of reasoning. That is sad.
I don't see much movement into other currencies, just the usual fluctuation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency#Global_curren...
"Other currencies" gained two percent point, I guess that's the Rupees the Ruzzians sold their oil for.
Those other neighbors themselves invaded many countries. They stole the money of other countries. Like Venezuela. They never had their assets stolen. Apparently, they subscribed to none of the moral values and ethics they have been advocating. So that argument doesn't count.
Those are currency reserves. Not the changes in the usage of currencies in international trade. But hey, don't let me disturb the comfortable numbness...
Would appreciate you (or anybody else) shed some light on the economics of the thing.
But basing the tariffs on import/export ratio makes sense if your goal is to be a net exporter with every country, as it discourages imports until that's the case. It's still somewhat arbitrary though; my guess is that the White House is pursuing that goal mostly for political, not economical reasons.
Given that both elasticities were set to cancel each other, that's why you get a flat trade deficit/imports calculation.
This is, sadly, the way a freshman econ student would calculate tariffs.
1. It’s not affected by these tariffs 2. It wasn’t used as a basis for the calculation
Also, there are some hints this might be from a LLM [1].
And an official statement that it's about trade imbalances and not reciproc tarrifs [2].
And they ask the affected country to "not retaliate" [3].
IMHO Trump tries to lead the US like he managed his businesses. And here I'd like to refer to the three casinos he owned that are now insolvent [4].
[0] https://universeodon.com/@cryptadamist/114272481124239587
[1] https://universeodon.com/@henryk@chaos.social/11427313249281...
[2] https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
[3] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/02/business/liberation-day-t...
[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atl...
This will get very interesting.