(A bit of) Decision-making for startups

venturehacks.com

4 pointsnivi3 comments

"Rubin looks at the world through the lens of probabilities. A good decision might have bad results. But if you have the chance to do it all over again, you should make the same decision."

Only if the same exact information is available the second time around... Life can be similar to poker etc., but sometimes quite different.

Tactical decisions recur, strategic decisions are one of a kind because, as Heraclitus observed: you cannot step into the same river twice. EDIT: Although experience may allow you to recognize earlier situations the are isomorphic ("history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme" Mark Twain).

One of the key principles I took away from a "Decision Analysis" class was "good decision, bad outcome." I try to separate my analysis of the process from the results.

I updated the post to read, "under the same conditions." Thanks!

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