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Comment by ivewonyoung | Hacker News Reader

Tesla shares are higher than when Twitter was acquired. 'Continues to decline' sounds like weasel wording that the media likes to use to push a narrative that doesn't exist.

Edit: Comment flagged for pointing out inconvenient facts, it's wild out there

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It is not unreasonable to assume Tesla shares will continue to decline whilst:

a) sales internationally are plummeting at such a rapid pace

b) consumer confidence is down with predictions of a looming recession

c) the brand continues to be tarnished by the association with Musk and Trump

d) auto tariffs will increase the costs of parts and the likelihood of reciprocity

Why would they continue to decline? If all that information is already known, why isn't it priced in and why isn't the best estimate of Tesla's price in 6 months equal to today's price plus the return of Treasuries?

The consequences of the known mismanagement is priced in. The consequences of the unknown mismanagement are tbd.

Tesla's current P/E ratio is 134. To be a rational Tesla investor, you'd have to think it has almost 600% profit growth potential to reach the long-term American blue-chip average P/E of ~20.

That kind of growth would be difficult for a new entrant, but for an incumbent that's been around a while and already seeing sales decline, it's a pipe dream. Of course, it's not all about cars for Tesla. They're betting big on humanoid robots and "full self-driving", although they've been stuck at Level-2 self-driving for years and the robots, well... Let's just say we don't hear much about them for a reason.

Of course, Tesla has never been a company for rational investors. I used to hold a lot of Tesla stock back in 2017-19 when they had plenty of doubters. I remember seeing how Tesla owners would organize themselves grass-roots-style to show off their cars and convince others to go electric. The company was getting a ton of free marketing and had a very devoted customer base. My, how things have changed. Now, they have to shut down showrooms across the country due to "terrorism".

So where is the upside? Well, protectionism could help them in the US market, but they're a global company with stagnant sales in the US, so it's hard to see tariffs helping more than they'd hurt. And that's pretty much it for upside AFAICT.

Happy to hear from a bull that I'm wrong :)

You forgot to mention that China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are all betting big on EV production. China is of course the main competition, but it's telling just how stiff the competition is getting across the board. BYD is currently making more cars than Tesla, with more advanced battery technology and comparable build quality, for a fraction of the price of any Tesla.

Meanwhile Elon is too busy rage-tweeting and K-holing to work on any of the things Tesla promised it would do this year, like release a model 2 or something with robots

The auto tariffs are a present for Elon. Teslas are the most American of American cars, and while they do still use foreign parts they use the least out of everyone.

On top of that, in the EV category, Tesla is pretty much the only one made in the US.

https://rivian.com/

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/27/trump-auto-tariffs-vehicles...

Tesla made 50% of its revenue in the US in 2024. It's a global company. Trade wars will not be the massive boon Tesla investors are hoping for.

Remember that their current P/E ratio is ~134, so the stock price already has a ton of growth priced in.

67% of Americans would not consider buying a Tesla, new poll says - https://electrek.co/2025/03/28/most-americans-would-not-cons... - March 28th, 2025

Tesla (TSLA) Q1 delivery consensus: 377,000 EVs – worst performance in 2 years - https://electrek.co/2025/03/28/tesla-tsla-q1-delivery-consen... - March 28th, 2025

Tesla is banned from Canada EV rebate program, gov freezes suspicous $43 million in rebates - https://electrek.co/2025/03/25/tesla-banned-canada-ev-rebate... - March 25, 2025

Tesla sales fall by 49% in Europe even as the electric vehicle market grows - https://apnews.com/article/tesla-sales-recall-trump-byd-b6f5... - March 25, 2025

Tesla’s fall from grace may have no equal, says JPMorgan: ‘We struggle to think of anything analogous’ [$120 price target] - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-fall-grace-may-no-18005... - March 13, 2025

Tesla’s stock nosedives — wiping out $700B in gains since Trump’s election victory - https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/business/tesla-stock-drop-eras... - March 7, 2025

Australian Tesla sales plummet as owners rush to distance themselves from Elon Musk - https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/mar/06/australia... - March 6th, 2025

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/ (1YR)

Facts you don't like aren't "weasel words."

ivewonyoung and raynier are still correct. TSLA today is higher than on 5 November 2024, less than five months ago.

That's fine if that is the argument (11/5/2024 vs today) vs all the gains since that period lost, I'm not willing to argue the point to death, the brand value destruction will continue. The fundamentals will catch up to the price eventually with enough pressure.

It's true that Tesla shares recently declined, but the context is important: during 2022-2024 Tesla shares were trading between $100 and $300 (with high volatility), in October 2024 they were at $200-$250, then after elections they skyrocketed to the all time high of $488 (for no fundamental reason), and since then the stock is falling. It's $263 right now - after the latest declines the stock only returned to the price that's still higher than before the elections, and is higher than the 2022-2024 average (which was already unreasonably high and totally disconnected from earnings). So these declines are nothing, at least not yet.

We've only witnessed two months of this. Imagine four years of it.

And the whole market is down, not just TSLA.

FWIW there was a fundamental reason for shares to spike after the election: The elected regime was one that is very corrupt and self-serving, and was likely to do everything in its power to make money flow towards the companies it owns.

By now, though, it's seeming more like they're too incompetent to do that. They'll probably still do it, but they'll crash the whole economy at the same time so the money that's flowing to Tesla won't be worth a whole lot. But it was a reasonable prediction at the time.

“Continues to decline” is a cushion for the next sentence “downgrade to sell” which cushions you from the ultimate, “new marketing leadership with Barron Trump and someone named Alien Brainrot”.

I’m pretty sure the management team will include Boris Badenov as the new DPO

If I jump off a building and you see me at the 10th floor, I was also 29.4 meters higher 3 seconds ago.

Tesla sales are falling worldwide and losing market share

Not to be pedantic, but you’ve confused acceleration with velocity. How far you’ve traveled will depend on how long you’ve been falling, and what your starting velocity was.

The stock is up more than 18% in the last 18 days, so by your analogy you were 29.4 meters lower 3 seconds ago.

Falling from a building isn't the right analogy, it's more like falling down a huge flight of stairs. You bounce on the way down.

After the unprecedented move of the President of the United States anointing Musk as a made man and member of Donalds swamp, all from the White House. In additional multiple other highest members of Trump's government went on TV and said 'invest in Tesla'. That is not a healthy stock surge. It is a pure DC swamp play.

[flagged]

What do you mean by this? Do you not agree these events happened in an attempt to bring the stock back up? That government officials gave stock advice on TV that would cost financial advisors their licenses, for the benefit/as a favor to Musk (a billionaire), the very definition of DC swamp behavior, government officials doing illegal/immoral favors for their rich sponsors.

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