Immigration will solve the talent war in the valley
rvivek.com
rvivek.com
Design is more about culture than engineering.
Design is a more hands on skill that requires contextual learning.
Design requires creativity better fostered by a Western education system than an Eastern one.
Design draws on a legacy of history and the history of the East is different from the history of the West.
Design requires a sense of humor and humor is different in every country.
According to a paper titled "Silicon Valley's New Immigrant Enterpreneurs)"[1], Indian and Chinese enterpreneurs were responsible for 24% of the technology businesses started between 1980 and 1988. So the idea is definitely backed by statistical evidence.
Besides, if there are qualified Americans who can fill these jobs already, why exactly do we have a talent shortage in tech?
[...] Estimate of ethnic entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley was obtained by identifying all businesses with CEOs having Chinese and Indian surnames in a Dun & Bradstreet database of technology firms started since 1980. According to this count, close to one-quarter (24 percent) of Silicon Valley’s technology firms in 1998 had Chinese or Indian executives.
Technology company executives are salaried employees - even at C-level, they do not create tech jobs any more than the HR department. Moreover, it's a well-known fact that C-level executives rarely come from founders (example: http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/29/why-startup-fou...). Not to mention that an ethnically Indian/Chinese person is not the same as an immigrant from India/China.
If there are qualified Americans who can fill these jobs already, why exactly do we have a talent shortage in tech?
Because "we" don't pay enough? Because "we" won't look at anyone over 35? Because "we" demand a statistically improbable combination of skills plus open-source experience plus hobby projects? Because "we" equate talent with blogging? The list goes on and on.
(FWIW, I am an immigrant).
Economies are driven by demand (consumption drives production), and economic policy is really about creating circumstances in which that demand can flourish and result in economic activity.
That's not to say that a free-for-all immigration policy is best for any country. Too many people moving around too quickly can be destabilizing. But it's not like there's a fixed pile of jobs and a larger pile of people, and it's like a game of musical chairs or something.
A good analogy would be the financial systems of London and New York. Just because all the financial people congregate there doesn't mean they are taking jobs from the local talent.
So, no, I'm not really interested in increasing the supply of skilled labor any further and driving prices for my labor any lower. The "talent war" is good for everyone with skills that works in the Valley. Feature, not a bug.
It basically states, the employee must be paid the prevailing wage or higher. There are probably employers who flout this rule, but it isn't legal. When used legitimately, H1-B does increase the supply of talent in the valley.
1. The ostensible reason for the H-1B program is a shortage of technical know-how, yet most H-1Bs are under 30 and most unemployed Americans are over 35. Wages comparison is moot when you pit junior jobs against senior jobs - again, in view of experience being the supposed goal of the program.
2. Wages do not account for working hours. If you work 12-hour days, your salary is effectively significantly lower than if you work 8-hour days.
3. Wages do not account for the downward pressure on market competition. If you are handcuffed into your job per your visa conditions, you can't shop for better offers elsewhere.
Better explanation here:
For example, labor certification (to determine that there is a labor shortage that requires outside talent) is very easy to game: they can run 2 Sunday newspaper ads in the local newspaper to satisfy the primary labor cert requirement: http://tinyurl.com/czhop2f
How many people have newspaper subscriptions anymore, and how many tech workers look for jobs in the newspaper?
It's also easy to game prevailing wage requirements by conducting surveys yourself or playing with the subjective terms of the law regarding 'comparable skillsets' etc
If we decreased the supply of programmers to 1 said programmer would be making a shitload of money - but that is not good for the general population, nor the economy.
Similarly, the restriction of the oil supply will drive up cost, drive down usage, and force the economy to grind to an ugly halt.
Wage depression, especially in an environment where wages are already remarkably elevated, enables further economic activity (i.e., software businesses with cost structures that prevent paying $250K+ an engineer can now exist and create wealth).
And let's be honest, as a single programmer making 4.5x the median household American income, our wages are plenty elevated.
I also don't think that comparing to the median US household makes much sense. It would make more sense to compare salaries with other highly skilled and educated workers in very high cost areas.
It's sobering to enter the "elevated" salaries of software developers into a housing affordability calculator and search San Francisco or the peninsula for what you could buy at that price. Most households are dual income now, which does get you in the range of that 4.5x household income you mentioned earlier. At this point, you're into pleasant, middle class areas.
At this point, I guess it's just a matter of opinion. I think that when it's a stretch for two highly educated workers to afford a fairly ordinary house in a decent if unfashionable part of town, salaries aren't elevated to the point where I find claims of a crucial shortage credible. If that's what employers want to pay, that's fine, but I see no reason for special government programs designed to increase the size of this workforce - it would seem to me that it is responding rationally to market signals.
The economy wouldn't necessarily grind to an ugly hault - there is a sweetspot in the middle, which you are ignoring here. It could also be that people/businesses adjust to a _moderate_ supply restriction in some way (travel less, purchase locally, etc), new technologies arrive, and things change for the better.
> If we decreased the supply of programmers to 1 said programmer would be making a shitload of money - but that is not good for the general population, nor the economy.
I also don't buy into the 'good for general population' argument necessarily - it is fair for employees (in this case, programmers) to also want what is best for themselves. Corporations generally want what is best for their shareholders (or executives) and not their employees OR the general population, which is part of the reason they ask for higher caps.
> And let's be honest, as a single programmer making 4.5x the median household American income, our wages are plenty elevated.
Why do you think wages are elevated? Many programmers I work with are very smart folks, and I personally feel that they are underpaid relative to the value they are creating within the organizations they work for. Furthermore, why is 4.5x the median household income randomly the bar here? Should every profession be capped in your view (doctors, lawyers, etc)?
And from a "what's good for my country/the world/people less well off than I am" perspective easier immigration is an obvious win.
We hired a Canadian employee using this status and there really is very little paperwork. He needed a letter describing his work (which must put him in an acceptable bucket) which he presented at the US/Canada border and an hour or so later he was in. It has to be renewed every three years, but can be renewed indefinitely.
Waterloo puts out great engineers -- engineers with fewer options with the implosion of RIM. So, look north!
Also, only certain occupations qualify at any given time.
That said, I imagine H-1b paperwork is dreadful to deal with. A lot of smaller companies may choose to ignore international candidates simply because they don't want to deal with the paperwork
What startup is going to wait over a year for their prospective coder to be able to do his job? This is something the education system should be doing. If it isn't, by all means fix it, but don't make startup CEOs spend over a year training employees.
Because the lead time to go from "has basic math and logic skills" to "competent programmer" is on the order of years, if not over a decade.
Do you want to put someone on your payroll for years before you see one tiny iota of productivity out of them? Or worse, have them be a negative drain on your productivity?
> "but lets be reasonable, ordinary Americans built this country and they're the reason Silicon Valley exists in this country and not someplace else"
This isn't true. The US has been extremely reliant on skilled immigration as its power base throughout the 20th century. Immigrants are over-represented in academia as well as all corners of basic research, they are also over-represented in the industries that spawned Silicon Valley (i.e., the defense and aerospace R&D that gave birth to both the funding, cultural, and educational foundation that birthed the semiconductor industry, followed by the software industry).
> "You could easily teach someone to code by October 2013 if you started now."
Then do it. I challenge you. Starting today, from someone with the proper high school level education but no relevant college education (i.e., no STEM degree), develop someone into a competent programmer capable of writing production-ready code by the end of October 2013.
Put your money where your mouth is.
The problem, as highlighted by your post, is that companies only want to hire the best of the best. I understand why, but it sets us up with a situation where even those who know how to program (poorly) cannot find work, exacerbating the talent shortages.
On seconds thoughts it is actually true for every profession. Ever saw a waiter smearing the shit on a table rather than actually wiping it clean? How much time you think one needs to learn how to clean a frigging table?
Hiring a good professional or training any XYZ to become a good professional, is really not something I will bet my business on.
In actuality, there is a lack of folks who want to pay market price (which is going up) for programming talent even if their corporation is quite profitable. Requesting higher caps is a way to conveniently dodge the market forces at play.
What makes you think that America deserves/needs a good engineer more than India itself?
Disclaimer: I am not in India right now. But having been educated practically for free in a Govt. college, I hope I will be able to repay some of my dues soon. At the very least Govt of India, should be able to tax the runaways like me.
I can't speak for how it is in US because I haven't been there. But I really can't think of anything that can be done only in valley but not in India. But yeah again, I can't be so sure, because I have seen the things only from one side.
About soft skills, I felt considerable writing efforts are required here as part of the normal master's degree. I am doing my master's degree in CS here. Even if I am writing a simple report on some project I spend extra hours to think from the reader's perspective. That builds up writing skills. You get constructive feedback if you present something. That builds up the presentation skills. May be this is a personal experience.
I also felt that you start appreciating positive things about your country more but this experience may not be specific to US.
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm
There seems to be a more-processed version here.
"Talented hacker" does not necessarily equal "median H1B recipient".
There are thousands of employees of these companies sitting idle in India with a H1-B visa in hand. They won’t go to work in US anytime soon because their Indian employer doesn’t need them move to US. These companies blindly apply for thousands of visas even when they don’t need it, just in case they get a new client.
These body shops waste most of the H1-B quota and create a block for genuine recruits by companies like Google, Apple and Microsoft.
The worst offenders are the downright fraudulent organizations like http://www.ebsolutionsinc.com . Does it look like a company who needs to import thousands of IT workers every year? This company alone accounts of thousands of H1-B visas every year, and there are thousands of shell companies like these. These companies are not only abusing the system, but what they are doing is downright illegal.
This is how they work:
They hold immigration seminars all over India and assure people a job in US and H1-B visa. They recruit thousands of candidates in India and charge them a fee of $8,000 to $20,000 upfront. These candidates are not only engineers; they are IT workers (who can’t code), teachers, accountants and nurses. Most of these candidates are not qualified enough, many have fake degrees and most can’t speak even speak English.
Their visas are sponsored by their shell recruitment agencies in US (supported with fake documents). These candidates do not even have a real job offer yet; the recruitment agency produces a fake job offer and keeps them on their own payroll. Upon approval of H1-B visa, these candidates arrive in US with no clue about what comes next. Their recruiters throw them in dorms with miserable living conditions. The recruitment agency trains them some English and Interview 101 and arranges several interviews in US companies.
The American companies contract these workers from the recruitment agents, usually at 50% of the market salary. These workers start working for the American corporations, but they stay on the payroll of their recruiters. Their recruitment agents usually take a cut of 30%-50% from their salary every month.
[Edit]
One of my friend runs a body shop in US and imports around 400 workers every year.
Word 'camps' changed to 'dorms'.
Related links:
http://em.gmnews.com/news/2008-06-18/front_page/008.html
http://bhartiads.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Medical-Ou...
I guess you would already know how things work in India.
If you can't speak English, these agents can even arrange someone else to do an IELTS test for you, and use it to represent your English skills.
Newspapers & streets in India (specially in Punjab) are full with ads like: "Get a Job and Visa in USA / Canada / Australia"
What are you trying to say there?
> Their recruiters throw them in camps with miserable living conditions.
Really? Camps?
>These workers start working for the American corporations
If these workers don't know English and can't code, how are they able hold jobs at American corporations?
Not exactly camps, probably dorms where 4 to 6 people live in a single room.
> If these workers don't know English and can't code, how are they able hold jobs at American corporations?
They are not exactly doing high-tech jobs, they just used a high-tech resume to get visa. Many of these H1-B candidates are working jobs like data entry, IT support or call center (if they can speak English).
These people can read and write English, but can't speak English well. The recruitment agency helps them to pick up some English speaking skills. They also receive a technical training relevant to their job either by the recruitment agency or by their employer.
I have friends running startups in other parts of the world (India, Romania, ...), and it seems there is talent war everywhere. Yes there is a lot of mediocre programmers around but talent is very sparse.
The half serious/half not comment came after he was describing the variety of anti-immigration lobbies in Washington with big contingents from the 'heartland' trying to keep foreigners out.
Why on earth would anyone do that? There are tech communities all over the country, you know. Boston and New York are two main ones that come to mind but there's also Raleigh, Austin...
The sad part is there's really only one, organized into about 20 different lobbying groups but (mostly) centrally funded from the estate of a dead multi-millionaire.