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Comment by jryan49 | Hacker News Reader

It would be fine if it were sold that way, but there is so much hype. We're told that it's going to replace all of us and put us all out our jobs. They set the expectations so high. Like remember OpenAI showing a video of it doing your taxes for you? Predictions that super-intelligent AI is going to radically transform society faster than we can keep up? I think that's where most of the backlash is coming from.

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> We're told that it's going to replace all of us and put us all out our jobs.

I think this is the source of a lot of the hype. There are people salivating at the thought of no longer needing to employ the peasant class. They want it so badly that they'll say anything to get more investment in LLMs even if it might only ever allow them to fire a fraction of their workers, and even if their products and services suffer because the output they get with "AI" is worse than what the humans they throw away were providing.

They know they're overselling it, but they're also still on their knees praying that by some miracle their LLMs trained on the collective wisdom of facebook and youtube comments will one day gain actual intelligence and they can stop paying human workers.

In the meantime, they'll shove "AI" into everything they can think of for testing and refinement. They'll make us beta test it for them. They don't really care if their AI makes your customer service experience go to shit. They don't care if their AI screws up your bill. They don't care if their AI rejects your claims or you get denied services you've been paying for and are entitled to. They don't care if their AI unfairly denies you parole or mistakenly makes you the suspect of a crime. They don't care if Dr. Sbaitso 2.0 misdiagnoses you. Your suffering is worth it to them as long as they can cut their headcount by any amount and can keep feeding the AI more and more information because just maybe with enough data one day their greatest dream will become reality, and even if that never happens a lot of people are currently making massive amounts of money selling that lie.

The problem is that the bubble will burst eventually. The more time goes by and AI doesn't live up to the hype the harder that hype becomes to sell. Especially when by shoving AI into everything they're exposing a lot of hugely embarrassing shortcomings. Repeating "AI will happen in just 10 more years" gives people a lot of time to make money and cash out though.

On the plus side, we do get some cool toys to play with and the dream of replacing humans has sparked more interest in robotics so it's not all bad.

Yeah, it won't do your taxes for you, but it can sure help you do them yourself. Probably won't put you out of your job either, but it might help you accomplish more. Of course, one result of people accomplishing more in less time is that you need fewer people to do the same amount of work - so some jobs could be lost. But it's also possible that for the most part instead, more will be accomplished overall.

People frame that like it's something we gain, efficiency, as if before we were wasting time by thinking for ourselves. I get that they can do certain things better, I'm not sure that delegating to them is free of charge. We're paying something, losing something. Probably learning and fulfillment. We become increasingly dependent on machines to do anything.

Something important happened when we turned the tables around, I don't feel it gets the credit it should. It used to be humans telling machines what to do. Now we're doing the opposite.

Yes. Use an LLM with any regularity to write code or anything else and the effect becomes perceptible. It discourages effortful thought.

Sometimes the means are just as important as the ends, if not more

If it had access to my books, a current-gen frontier LLM most certainly could do my taxes. I don't understand that entire line of reasoning.

And it might even be right and not get you in legal trouble! Not that you'd know (until audit day) unless you went back and did them as a verification though.

And if I did my own taxes, I wouldn't know if I were in legal trouble until audit day as well!

If you hired a competent professional accountant, in all but the most contrived scenarios you wouldn't have to worry about legal trouble at all.

Except now, you can hire a competent professional accountant and discover on audit day that they got taken over by private equity, replaced 90% of the professionals doing work with AI and made a lot of money before the consequences become apparent.

This is such a fun timeline

Yes, but you're going to pay through the nose for the "wouldn't have to worry about legal trouble at all" (part of what you're paying for with professional services is a degree of protection from their fuckups).

So going back to apples-and-apples comparison, i.e. assuming that "spend a lot of money to get it done for you" is not on the table, I'd trust current SOTA LLM to do a typical person's taxes better than they themselves would.

TurboTax handles it fine with what are effectively a bunch of defined if-else statements.

I pay my accountant 500 USD to file my taxes. I don't consider that "through the nose" relative to my my inflated tech salary.

If a person is making a smaller income their tax situation is probably very simple, and can be handled by automated tools like TurboTax (as the sibling comment suggests).

I don't see a lot of value add from LLMs in this particular context. It's a situation where small mistakes can result in legal trouble or thousands of dollars of losses.

I'm on a financial forum where people often ask tax questions, generally _fairly_ simple questions. An obnoxious recent trend on many forums, including this one, is idiots feeding questions into a magic robot and posting what it says as a response. Now, ChatGPT may be very good at, er, something, I dunno, I am assured that it has _some_ use by the evangelists, but it is not good at tax, and if people follow many of the answers it gives then they are likely to get in trouble.

If a trillion-parameter model can't handle your taxes, that to me says more about the tax code than the AI code.

People who paste undisclosed AI slop in forums deserve their own place in hell, no argument there. But what are some good examples of simple tax questions where current models are dangerously wrong? If it's not a private forum, can you post any links to those questions?

So, a super-basic one I saw recently, in relation to Irish tax. In Ireland, ETFs are taxed differently to normal stocks (most ETFs available here are accumulating, they internally re-invest dividends; this is uncommon for US ETFs for tax reasons). Normal stocks have gains taxed under the capital gains regime (33% on gains when you sell). ETFs are different; they're taxed 40% on gains when you sell, and they are subject to 'deemed disposal'; every 8 years, you are taxed _as if you had sold and re-bought_. The ostensible reason for this is to offset the benefit from untaxed compounding of dividends.

Anyway, the magic robot 'knew' all that. Where it slipped up was in actually _working_ with it. Someone asked for a comparison of taxation on a 20 year investment in individual stocks vs ETFs, assuming re-investment of dividends and the same overall growth rate. The machine happily generated a comparison showing individual stocks doing massively better... On closer inspection, it was comparing growth for 20 years for the individual stocks to growth of 8 years for the ETFs. (It also got the marginal income tax rate wrong.)

But the nonsense it spat out _looked_ authoritative on first glance, and it was a couple of replies before it was pointed out that it was completely wrong. The problem isn't that the machine doesn't know the rules; insofar as it 'knows' anything, it knows the rules. But it certainly can't reliably apply them.

(I'd post a link, but they deleted it after it was pointed out that it was nonsense.)

Interesting, thanks. That doesn't seem like an entirely simple question, but it does demonstrate that the model is still not great at recognizing when it is out of its league and should either hedge its answer, refuse altogether, or delegate to an appropriate external tool.

This failure seems similar to a case that someone brought up earlier ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43466531 ). While better than expected at computation, the transformer model ultimately overestimates its own ability, running afoul of Dunning-Kruger much like humans tend to.

Replying here due to rate-limiting:

One interesting thing is that when one model fails spectacularly like that, its competitors often do not. If you were to cut/paste the same prompt and feed it to o1-pro, Claude 3.7, and Gemini 2.5, it's possible that they would all get it wrong (after all, I doubt they saw a lot of Irish tax law during training.) But if they do, they will very likely make different errors.

Unfortunately it doesn't sound like that experiment can be run now, but I've run similar tests often enough to tell me that wrong answers or faulty reasoning are more likely model-specific shortcomings rather than technology-specific shortcomings.

That's why I get triggered when people speak authoritatively on here about what AI models "can't do" or "will never be able to do." These people have almost always, almost without exception, been proven dead wrong in the past, but that never seems to bother them.

It's the sort of mistake that it's hard to imagine a human making, is the thing. Many humans might have trouble compounding at all, but the 20 year/8 year confusion just wouldn't happen. And I think it is on the simple side of tax questions (in particular all the _rules_ involved are simple, well-defined, and involve no ambiguity or opinion; you certainly can't say that of all tax rules). Tax gets _complicated_.

This reminds me of the early days of Google, when people who knew how to phrase a query got dramatically better results than those who basically just entered what they were looking for as if asking a human. And indeed, phrasing your prompts is important here too, but I mean more that by having a bit of an understanding of how it works and how it differs from a human, you can avoid getting sucked in by most of these gaps in its abilities, while benefitting from what it's good at. I would ask it the question about the capital gains rules (and would verify the response probably with a link I'd ask it to provide), but I definitely wouldn't expect it to correctly provide a comparison like that. (I might still ask, but would expect to have to check its work.)

Forget OpenAI ChatGPT doing your taxes for you. Now Gemini will write up your sales slides about Gouda cheese, stating wrongly in the process that gouda makes up about 50% of all cheese consumption worldwide :) These use-cases are getting more useful by the day ;)

I mean, it's been like 3 years. 3 years after the web came out was barely anything. 3 years after the first GPU was cool, but not that cool. The past three years in LLMs? Insane.

Things could stall out and we'll have bumps and delays ... I hope. If this thing progresses at the same pace, or speeds up, well ... reality will change.

Or not. Even as they are, we can build some cool stuff with them.

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