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Comment by master-lincoln | Hacker News Reader

What makes you think there is a domestic energy crisis? Spot prices are comparable with neighboring countries: https://www.energyprices.eu/

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I usually look at things like https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab...

And you can't use spot prices in the way you're trying to for a few reasons - firstly, those countries will all have interconnects with each other so the prices harmonise - if one country has a whole problem the whole area has a problem (which might be what we can see in the prices, coincidentally). Secondly the overall cost of electricity isn't set on the median day but by what happens on extreme days (dead of winter or height of summer, depending on where in the world you are). Thirdly, a lot of German policy seems to involve taxes applied after the electricity has been sold.

> I usually look at things like https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab...

This shows per capita energy consumption steadily decreased from ~1985 to 2023 almost back to the level of 1960. Should that indicate an energy crisis? The graphs from the whole EU or the USA don't look much different so I don't see how the chart helps.

What numbers could be looked at to identify that energy crisis?

You seem to have spotted all the salient features, I'm not sure what you want me to add. To the questions - yes and those numbers.

I remain mystified by the people who can look at a 25% drop in energy use, steady relative collapse of power relative to Asia and the gentle collapse of the political fabric and just shrug and say everything is fine. I dunno what the AfD needs to poll at before the German elite admit that maybe they screwed up the last few decades.

The statistics suggest there is a massive problem here.

But then we would have that same massive problem in the USA and the whole of Europe. Is that the case?

Yes. Do you not follow much politics? The US is currently undergoing one of the most spectacular political revolutions since the 1930s. The Overton window includes issues like the collapse of the US Not-An-Empire, invading Canada and deciding what form the civil war is going to take [0]. Driven by a gentleman standing up and shouting "drill baby drill" and talking about how the country needs cheap energy to drive a manufacturing renaissance as one of his central policies. Europe is currently re-arming because war has returned to the continent with around a million dead and escalating - discovering as they do so that service economies don't have an obvious path to stopping troop movements [1]. There is a mirroring political revolt brewing there as we see a large number of rather disgruntled alternative parties start to gain traction pointing out decades of failed policy that suggest living standards have been slipping. Most of the activity is the downstream impacts of energy policy. People are on edge because the real economic pie is not only stagnant, but shrinking and they're figuring it out.

[0] I recommend vicious debate, but physical violence seems to be a possiblity.

[1] And, realistically, if China ever openly supports Russia then Europe will probably lose any fight that eventuates. There is an interesting geopolitical balance forming.

Why would a 25% drop in energy use necessarily indicate an energy crisis?

Isn't it far more likely that a shift in economic composition changed the energy consumption? That shift might be a bad thing, but it's not an energy crisis.

I don't think you have a real point there. I'd draw a parallel with someone getting hit by a car and; someone shouts out "we need an ambulence this is a medical crisis!" and a helpful bystander pipes up to say the issue here is really more of a mechanical nature, nothing went wrong medically - this is all just a result of poor driving skills and is really a driver education crisis.

I mean, ok? Maybe call an ambulance anyway? Or in this case stop with the pressure against building out & using cheap energy.

"Apart from a complacent reliance on Russian gas throughout its period of fast growth, Germany’s energy policy faces a detrimental resistance to nuclear energy, a sluggish transition to green energy, and an incredibly slow bureaucracy, all contributing to the nation’s energy crisis." [1]

[1] https://hir.harvard.edu/germanys-energy-crisis-europes-leadi...

Ah ok, an opinion piece from last year makes you think that.

I will call bullshit over and over again.

Especially companies rested on a relaxed foundation of artifically low energy prices due to lobbyism and dependence on cheap Russian gas.

Both is gone and companies face "true" prices and have to deal with them.

Nevertheless, energy generation from renewables is rising and rising, more and more renewable capacity is added to the grid each week and laws have been loosened to enable a faster transition.

I won't get into what might be considered "artificially low prices" and "true prices", but isn't what you describe an energy crisis, then?

I picked an illustrative article that explains things. Germany has been hit by an energy crisis as a matter of concensus and fact, not opinion. You can easily research the topic if you are actually curious and interested.

The dependence on Russian gas is still prevalent in Germany but it now comes through transit. Consider that there are many machines that use it, which can’t be replaced immediately.

Compare it with the USA though...

Europe is just a collection of crises - migration, energy, age demographics, productivity.

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