> He disagreed with a recent prediction from Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, that 90% of code may be written by AI in the next three to six months.
> "I think the number is going to be more like 20-30% of the code could get written by AI — not 90%"
I kind of agree with him. Definitely not in six months :)
Still amazing for time saving but so far I haven’t been able to get even a SwiftUI class written to the standard I’d use it as-is.
Lots of code is boilerplate or large switch statements (esp in OOP), or other such things. All of which AI code completion makes a breeze. The actual hard parts of code (often the various ways of connecting two disparate systems), AI doesn't really help with unless you tell it what to do and how, so you're still the ultimate important decision-maker in this scenario and can't be "replaced"
I already find myself building prototypes that I never would have attempted previously; it’s just too easy to have the LLM whip one up. LLMs also make it easier to do “grunt work” coding of writing validation checking and unit tests on non-critical code where previously I wouldn’t have bothered.
I certainly hope not. But three to six years from now? I’m not so confident.
If LLMs get to the point that they can unpack almost any logic that one might need for a function or class that’s amazing, but if it doesn’t understand the why, I think that leads to fundamental limitations in progress.
And maybe I’m still not using the right tools, but I’m not finding cursor/claude 3.7 to be close.
The idea that they can replace workers is laughable. I am afraid though that the current state of LLMs is too expensive for its use case. So I'm trying not to lean too much on them.