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Comment by elmerfud | Hacker News Reader

Tesla stock is very overvalued and has been for a long time. Of course Elon wants it to continue to be artificially inflated but those in the know, know it's time to bail on it. I suspect it still has a lot further to fall before it hits an appropriate value.

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Tesla’s stock is valued on the basis of the self driving tech.

That’s slated to be out this summer, but the insiders are certainly not behaving as if it will be. In fact, they’re acting exactly as one would if they expect it to be delete once again and/or underwhelm greatly.

Elon Musk Promises Full Self-Driving 'Next Year' For The Ninth Year In A Row[1] - this article was published over 3 years ago.

Are there many examples of a valuable company's stock being based on something which it has failed to deliver on for over a decade and is set to continue failing to deliver?

[1] https://www.jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-drivin...

do you copy paste “this summer” ever year for a decade or you type it up every year manually?

also, in 2078 when this might actually happen - how many people you think would even get into these using a tech of a company that uses hot glue from walmart to put cars together? :)

If Tesla receives state support like Volkswagen had, it may overperform above its peers.

Potentially, yes, but it’s wildly high compared to any of its competitors. To get there that state support would have to be something like banning competitors or saying they’ll buy every soldier a Cybertruck.

Or giving Tesla a mandate to rebuild America’s ridiculous transportation infrastructure for a new century

I'm not sure what you specifically mean by transportation infrastructure, but it's not obvious Tesla has many relevant skills or resources to overhaul anything I'd consider transportation infrastructure. They don't build roads or bridges or airports or rail lines. They do build chargers, which is certainly relevant for an electric car future, but that seems inadequate to support a mandate to build transportation infrastructure.

> They do build chargers, which is certainly relevant for an electric car future, but that seems inadequate to support a mandate to build transportation infrastructure.

And the current government is cancelling plans to build charging infrastructure and actively removing it from federal buildings, not ordering more.

https://www.wired.com/story/feds-halt-national-electric-vehi...

How? By manufacturing more cars? Everyone can do it, Toyota, VW maybe even Ford..

My understanding was that Tesla had been suckling at the government's year for years in the form of carbon credit trading and would have expired already if not for this.

The problem is that Tesla stock is so ludicrously overvalued compared to its peers that even wildly outperforming them still wouldn't justify the current stock price based on financial fundamentals. A P/E ratio 15 times that of Toyota feels like a joke even if you believe Tesla has future potential that would outpace even their own growth over the last few years.

The price really seems almost entirely speculative, which is why it doubled after the election despite no obvious change in fundamentals for the company, almost certainly why it crashed back down just as quickly.

I don’t think that being partially owned by the state and the overall convoluted and organizational structure (unions etc.) have helped VW’s stock. It hasn’t been doing that well for a while and is quite cheap

Social security for Tesla!

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