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Comment by dave4420 | Hacker News Reader

I suspect many countries would prefer a Chinese reserve currency to a European one, due to past bad experiences of being ruled by Europeans.

But even on a purely economic level… does the Eurozone even have a larger economy than China?

I can see countries moving away from USD, but I don’t see them coalescing around a single alternative.

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China would absolutely not want to have a reserve currency. Their export economy would be destroyed overnight.

Doesn't China currently address this by having two currencies, with one dedicated to offshore use?

Perhaps? I can't imagine that either could take the loss of production capacity the way the US has. The global inflation of product prices alone is staggering to consider.

China only has one currency, the renminbi or yuan. There are capital controls so it isn't fully traded on international markets. It has only been internationally traded since 2015, and I think there were various schemes before that.

Aren't CNY and CNH effectively two different currencies, despite having the same name and being somewhat linked?

I hadn't noticed that. I guess that is how they manage the capital controls. It sounds like they are supposed to be the same internally but that there is a spread. That seems like it could be a weakness.

The RMB is a terrible reserve currency since the CCP can just arbitrarily change its value by decree.

Sure — but if the CCP decided it wanted the benefits of owning a reserve currency, it could change that. Then suddenly it looks more attractive.

I would suspect that some countries would definitely go to China due to the more sizable economy. But a large number of others - especially those with more democratic idealogies - would go with the Euro.

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