We don't know, but articles like this aren't an analysis based on facts or a theory (or even opinion with supporting arguments) of what AI will be capable of in the near future as much as they are an expression of anxiety and hope that there is something special about the things they want to continue to believe are special. That's a perfectly reasonable and very normal reaction whenever the world starts to change quickly and in uncomfortable ways, but there is practically zero information content towards helping understand the situation with the technology (however it is very informative wrt the situation with people and the sociology of disruption).
Aaron Ross Powell isn't an expert or even a highly informed amateur. He's an internet influence who calls himself a radical liberal philosopher. He seems quite good at what he does, but what he does lends no real information content as to what AI is capable or will be capable of at any point.
> The second feature is a basic lack of taste. That Sam Altman thinks his chatbot’s short story is brilliant tells us much more about Altman’s literary sophistication than it does the nearness of AGI.
ARP's book of short stories can be found here: https://amazon.com/Animus-Six-Tales-Crime-Terror-ebook/dp/B0... It has 3 reviews and they are poor. Glass houses etc. The one good review is from a reviewer who says he is as good as Stephen King, the other reviews from this reviewer are exclusively for baby toys. "Sophistication"