Remove them of the picture and the market will solve itself very quickly, most of the companies to replace them are already there in a weaker form.
The cloud platforms are nowhere near as hard to replace as the chips.
Source: I worked on a sovereign cloud PaaS in Germany. Admittedly the project was a disaster, hiring talent in the infrastructure space here is really tough. Probably mostly due to a lack of opportunities to acquire experience domestically and noncompetitive wages limiting migration of those with experience.
Gaia-X is a total dumpster fire though, perfect example of what's wrong with the EU. All the money was spent paying bureaucrats, consults, and standards committee folks to architecture astronaut and design by committee sovereign cloud "standards" bullshit bingo. None of the money went to the engineers.
We should really copy the Chinese approach here, straight out clone a subset of the best/most popular parts of AWS/Azure/GCP. I'm open to contracting opportunities in this space BTW (email in profile).
They are paying very low taxes in the EU, contributing enormously on the US economy and are close to the president. That has to be the biggest target.
And the US can't even use the EU defense card anymore to defend them as Trump wasted it with his Russian appeasement.
I'd rate this probability at 50% at least.