Tesla Stock Is Plunging Again. It Could Drop for a Ninth Straight Week
barrons.com
barrons.com
Until about mid-2024, Tesla was still projecting a 50% growth in car sales per year, until 2030 - with a goal of selling 20M car / year by that deadline. That was a very nice story that people believed.
Now they believe that Tesla will produce billions of Optimus robots. Which is also a nice story.
There's also 10 Chinese and even some European startup competitors that aren't even bothering with advanced mechanics. Humanoid robots that can be described as "quasi-direct-drive motors with sticks in between", that do everything the Tesla robots can.
If Tesla's demonstrated anything, it's that they can barely match 10 year old Boston Dynamics demonstrations, and 2-3 year old Chinese demonstrations. It's making clear what everyone in robotics knew 40 years ago: software will win robotics. Not hardware.
And let's just not mention the very embarrassing "human disguised as robot" demos Musk did.
But many (most) Wall Street analysts were attaching 0 importance to these 2, and their valuations were mostly driven by the projections of auto-sales. Which indeed at 20M units / year, given the margins they made in 2022, would be something valuable.
3.6B / 100K = 36000 years. It's more like 240M/year to get to 3.6B. The number of human workers isn't flat either. And Tesla isn't going to be making 240M robots a year anytime soon so WTF?
... Why would anyone believe this? Like, even if they suddenly magically jump from level 2 to level 5 (implausible), what's so special about their thing that they'd have a monopoly? If _they_ can do it, the likes of Waymo certainly can.
I think he's made it pretty clear that's exactly what he thinks.
Tesla's stock price has always been based largely on feels/memestock value, so if that goes, well, that's kind of all it has.
A long way yet to fall
Or, are you perhaps skewed in your own opinion due to your near constant support of the american conservatives in your previous posts and comments.