That’s why I’m currently most excited about ATProto (Bluesky)… bootstrapping a protocol as a centralized service that has already hit critical mass, and that can now be fully decentralized on an opt-in basis… feels promising.
It isn't easy to create alternative, but it should not be created as alternative to Facebook for example, but an alternative space for people to connect and express themselves. That will work more then just create another copy.
No it isn't.
The initial team came from a bunch of activist projects (typically p2p) and the thing we concluded was that activism requires a theory of change. How is your new technology going to get adopted across the world? The software world still largely operates by markets. Startups are the vehicle for distribution. So we need to behave like a startup while still accomplishing the technical/mission work.
The incredible gift was the initial funding and awareness, which Dorsey deserves a lot of credit for^1. That gave us about 10 months to do protocol work prior to commercialization, which was less than we wanted but just enough to get it done.
ActivityPub deserves a lot of credit too for its progress under an entirely different model, which I tend to describe as communitarian. What both projects did correctly was connect the protocol to an initial application that drives that distribution. Whether either get to "mass" adoption (greater than centralized services) is now the big question.
^1 Apologies for teeing up the inevitable "Dorsey left" conversations.
After which majority that doesnt need the levels of constant Attention the social media addicted free content manufacturing minority does will leave. And social media will face major issues.
Cuz when ever growing Content chases finite non growing eyeballs you cant keep increasing Ad prices every quarter and report profits for ever. This is zuckanomics which is utter shit.
Analysts are already seeing those limits being hit but since they havr seen time and again when limits get hit corporate robots like zuck then do layoffs, buy the competition, capture regulators, avoid tax, sell more personal data, inject more ads etc etc they still see scope for parasitic growth.
But parasitic growth comes with predictable and unpredictable cost. And they will build with time. Just like Jurassic Park. And we know how that story ends.
Human Attention cannot be exploited at population scale or there will be chaos.
Honestly, yes. It's working for China. With America doing its thing right now, it makes sense for e.g. the EU and Canada to look at whether handing communications and social media to American companies makes sense.
Related and very relevant paper: https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/ujvharkk/release/1
Attention is being exploited at scale. It's continuing, and evolving, and might soon manifest as other things (like intention).
I am not sure your predictions are accurate, but I at least would like a couple of them to be. I have thought a lot about the idea of certain ubiquitous and permeating things like social media as utilities, or at least non-profits with a public oversight and standards/requirements to comply with that are substantial, limiting, and entirely designed around what is good for the public rather than what is good for a business. Not sure this will ever actually happen, as time goes on, I only find more arguments for why it should, not less.