Is Apple Losing Its Shine After Steve Jobs?
business.time.com
business.time.com
Apple is extremely well positioned in front of almost every mass trend happening in consumer electronics. They are sitting on a tenth of a trillion dollars in cash. They have content deals with more companies in more places than almost anyone else on Earth. They are ending investment in unfruitful markets. They have a rapidly converging consumer platform that has essentially no identifiable competitive weaknesses. Investor confidence is thunderingly high. They're headquartered in an extremely pro-business nation and feted as the last great American wonder business with all that implies politically. They have a global retail arm that defies everything known about retail. Their manufacturing pipeline shames former industry leaders. Their litigation is top-notch. Their customer goodwill is limitless and serves to smooth over many failures in execution and experience.
They are, even if all goes dark tomorrow, one of the greatest successes in our industry that we will see in our lives. So as someone put above: if Apple can survive iPod Socks and the G4 Cube, they can probably survive whatever some stringer for Time is reading in the tea leaves.
Does anyone have any actual concerns about actual Apple as it pertains to the actual real world? I'll start:
- Their push for a tax holiday is going to go over extremely poorly in an election year
- Their extremely slow iPhone hardware update cycle leaves them vulnerable to fast-evolving competitors and a single bad product will poison the well for years
- The colossal amount of value stored nowadays in a single Apple ID means the damage from a security breach or intrusion is astronomical
- Apple has nothing interesting or heartening to say about their law enforcement policies vis a vis the data they collect
- Stitched leatherette Contacts
Reaction is almost universally negative, even among tech uninvolved customers. It appears unprofessional and unbusinesslike to them and tarnishes the image of Apple software as being elegant and industry-best. Apple's made small retreats lately but the idiom is still riding high.
Apple is not the only company requesting this and most of the discussions have been behind closed door. It hasn't been an issue previously and won't be an issue in the future.
>Their extremely slow iPhone hardware update cycle leaves them vulnerable to fast-evolving competitors and a single bad product will poison the well for years.
The update cycle has been in place for a number of generations now and every successive update has been more successful than the last. So this is factually baseless. Also many people like the fact that Apple supports their devices a lot longer than Android OEMs.
>The colossal amount of value stored nowadays in a single Apple ID means the damage from a security breach or intrusion is astronomical.
No different than if your online banking, Amazon, Google login was compromised. And infinitely more 'value' can be obtained by simply stealing a person's laptop or phone.
> Apple has nothing interesting or heartening to say about their law enforcement policies vis a vis the data they collect.
No evidence that this is an issue for most people. Telcos you would argue have a longer and deeper history of compliance with federal enforcement agencies and there hasn't been much of a uproar about it.
> Stitched leatherette Contacts.
Again factually baseless that this has impacted Apple in any way. Overwhelming popularity of recent iOS and OSX updates discredit your belief that it is an issue. Not to mention Apple has had 'unique' UI metaphors in place since 10.0 beta with Aqua, Pinstripes, Brushed Metal etc.
I agree that the law enforcement issues and tax holiday aren't really registering in the public consciousness, but they're important to me and the PR downsides for Apple could be significant.
I'm not backing down on the phone cycle or the security issues. A poorly received iPhone loses Apple the substantial market for "status" phones, poisons the next two years of 'budget' iPhones, and takes them months to a year to recover from. Those aren't small stakes.
And the security thing could be an apocalypse. Think bigger than just a single ID: someone finds out a way to silently break their way into Apple's infrastructure and start pulling databases. It's not just your Gmail or easily reversible banking information walking out the door: it's every text conversation you've ever had with a loved one. It's your voice, it's your passbook, it's your email settings, it's your contact book, your calendar, your billing address, you name it. It's all tied to a single ID and password. And there's hundreds of millions of them. That's incredible value, and there will be those who will go after it. The consequences for a major breach are severe.
It's like a basketball player who makes 100 free throws in a row, misses a couple, and people wonder what the hell happened to him/her.
However, they also made some decisions that I thought were stupid when Steve Jobs was there, such as releasing the iPad (which I thought would fail for sure). I'm just waiting to see how everything shakes out before I pass judgment. I've been dead wrong about Apple before, and I don't really see any reason I'll be correct with my opinions now.
The new iPad branding would be fine - if they weren't planning to make any new models of the iPad. It would forever remain the "new iPad". However, assuming they do release a new iPad, anyone who still uses the new iPad terminology will have to refer to the new iPad as the old new iPad, or, do what pretty much everyone else has done, and refer to it as the iPad 3. I noticed something similar to this the other day when I was comparing the 1998 VW Beetle (which was released under the name the Volkswagen New Beetle) with the 2012 VW Beetle (released under the name Volkswagen Beetle). In order to get which car I was talking about across I had to refer to the 1998 beetle as the old new beetle and the 2012 beetle as the new new beetle, which was awkward and felt counter-intuitive to everyone involved.
However, like I said, we'll see how this all shakes out. I've certainly been wrong about Apple's future success before, and I'm sure I'll be wrong about it again.
Completely OT, but I thought it was interesting to note that the time difference between the first mobile phone and the first commercially successful smartphone (1973-2007) and the time difference between the invention of the telegraph and telephone (1832-1876) were approximately the same. Apparently awesomeness takes 40 years to bloom.
Why is Apple losing its shine after Steve Jobs?It's fantastic, and a great all-around device. It surfs the web, does Gmail, and hooks up to bluetooth, with a great battery life.
As far as I'm concerned, that's near enough iPad functionality for half the cost.
(edit: it's also the reason why I prefer the Facebook mobile app over the web interface when I do need to use it, because it's not tainted by entities I don't care about)
The tablet looks okay but there's no appealing reason for me to want it when it won't do anything that I want of it - I can't Cmd-S in Pages and then lie in front of the TV while making edits on a document. I can't have all of my music with me at all times and I can't pull up my Photo Stream after a day out with friends. For me to even consider an Android device, there would need to be some way for it to integrate into an iCloud lifestyle and I really don't see that ever happening.
I just don't know how they can regain that level of desirability without disrupting another vertical. Or if they make some truly radical hardware innovations, such that it is visible and will make it obvious that you are using an Apple product and not a Samsung. The touchscreen iPhone with gestures and a full browser was a device like that, but that gap has long since been closed by other manufacturers. Siri was, I think, an attempt to do that again, but it wasn't quite ready--something that almost makes me think that Jobs knew he had to pull something out of his hat immediately, even at the cost of shelving his famous perfectionism.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/259829/apple_earnings_disappo...
> Moreover how big is that market?
They sold 44 million in three quarters, and they have (at least) 73% market share. So, a total of 80 million in 2012. Probably 50% more in 2013.
They demonstrated to accessory manufacturers that there was a lucrative market for them to get participate in. Not to mention putting "facts on the ground" about expected sales, profit margins etc for them to build their product strategy around.
But personaly I see no shine lost, sure they lost a great man but there again he had more than enough time to leave his legacy inplace and that is exactly what he did. If jobs was still about I'd expect the share price to be exactly the same and with that the public have already answeared this question that need not be asked.
http://www.forbes.com/global2000/#p_3_s_a0_All%20industries_...
Even if I accept your premise that every single other print publication has declined as well, that doesn't make his statement any less true. The statement was only about Time.
And I certainly don't accept your premise.
If you're talking about the new HDMI interface on the retina screen - I think it's a good move - DisplayPort will take years to appear on TVs and this was a serious feature that didn't compete with Apple's other products (unlike Blu-Ray - the entire Apple ecosystem relies on the fact that people are moving away from spinning media)... HDMI is not unlike the addition of the SD card slot in the MBP a couple years ago... a welcome addition.
Though I agree it is useful, I doubt HDMI would make it under Jobs.
We should also consider that maybe the smart phone trend thing is starting to slow down. Since most of the possibles innovations are already done it's harder to think of new features except maybe more power.
Seriously, in the 1980s it was IBM, Commodore, Tandy, et al. In the 1990s it was Windows. In the past decade every two-bit media player was called an iPod killer. Every phone ripping off the iPhone is called an iPhone killer. Every tablet is called an iPad killer.
And of course the myth has been spread that anything Apple does well is just the result of Steve Jobs.
Just as everyone who buys Apple products does so because they come under Steve Jobs "reality distortion field".
And how everything Apple has been doing in the past 5 years was poor because Steve Jobs health was bad.
How about that the iPod sucked becuase it didn't have an FM tuner?
Or the iPhone is never going to fly without a physical keyboard.
Or the iPad sounds like a woman's product and nobody will buy it, and of course nobody will carry it around.
Etc. Etc. Etc.
Apple is failing, always has been, and always will be.
Every time the stock goes down $30 (equivalent to a $60 stock going down $3) the stock is crashing.
When Apple misses wall street expectations by a few cents (but beats their projections) its a sign that the stock is in decline - before Steve Jobs died it was just proof that Apple sucked. When he was sick, it was because he lost control. Now that he's dead, Apple will never be able to accomplish anything good.
It has been 30 years of this crap.
The question is then does Apple, without Jobs, have the visionaries and the management team supporting those visionaries to pioneer very specific markets to continue earning billions in the future. I'd guess that over the next few years a Google Glass-style device is ready for the market and some sort of car-friendly voice-controlled heads-up-display computing device is capable of commanding billions, but outside of that it's going to be about apps and information... and although Apple has a huge presence today and lots of cash they've got a very hard positition to hold as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. are fighting for the same consumers who are paying a premium for Apple products.
My dad got a 1st gen iPad and really liked it. He just got a Nexus 7 and ditched his iPad. He doesn't think it's amazing or anything, but he can fit it in his pocket, buy books from Amazon directly, it was only $200 and it's lighter and easier to read on. At some point Apple's differentiation shifts from being innovative devices to being "sexy" design and a great interface... sure that sells, but it doesn't sell at nearly the same level as truly innovative devices like the iPod, iPhone, or iPad can. Apple's doing well today, but maintaining this level of success if going to be extremely difficult.
I am sorry but anyone who thinks devices like these are going to be some wild success are ignorant of the realities of our society.
People do not want to be recorded by random third parties and existing privacy laws in many countries respect that. As such the current use case of the device is likely to be illegal from day one. Throw in the problems of recording of children, recording inside workplaces and public institutions, complications for law enforcement, distraction whilst driving etc. The end result being the only place you could safely wear them is inside your own home.
Do I think it will be common in the future. Sure. But society and the law moves a lot slower than people realise.
...unless they get tremendous (perceived) value from it. Facebook, anyone?
During most of which Apple really was "beleaguered," and, as such, a crappy stock to hold.
The same spread of naysayers as well as unbounded optimists can be found touting their opinion of every thing on earth - tech companies, nations, sports team, fashion, whatever.
All things of course come to an end, but does 35 billion worth of revenue in a quarter signal Cupertino's imminent demise? I mean come on, how many consumer companies can say they've sold 35 billion dollars worth of anything?
IMHO, Apple's downfall will come from growing and expanding too much, not too little.