The reality is however quite different. Frankly for tariffs to work, you need a clear battle plan. There isn't any. Chaos has never been good for business and cherry picking one (positive) example isn't statistically relevant either
You may have missed where Trump and apparatchiks repeatedly stated they want to collect so many billions of dollars from tariffs that it replaces Federal Income Tax. [0]
Do they really want that in their souls? With the benefit of the past few years, I say that's the wrong question. Hanlon's Razor [1] fails on some pathological inputs, flavors of bullshit that cause it to time-out and situations where the costly result has no practical value. Sometimes it's just malcompetence.
[0] https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/economy/trump-abolish-irs/ind...
If the policy is intended to bring back US manufacturing, it would not be haphazardly implemented where the rates/industries/countries affected change by the hour. The best example are auto tariffs and steel/aluminum tariffs, which are going to absolutely destroy US auto manufacturing (where do we think the steel and aluminum used in cars are coming from?). An actual "reshoring" policy would be (1) targeted and (2) scheduled well in advance. So it obviously isn't that.
It also can't be part of a drug policy, since whatever Trump is saying about Canada is clearly false (Canada accounts for less than 1% of illicit fentanyl trade and is a net _importer_ of illegal drugs and guns _from_ the US), thus no policy can really impact this trade.
It also clearly can't be part of an energy policy, since US refineries are designed to accept a huge amount of Canadian and South American heavy crude (very little of which is produced in the US), so the oil tariffs can't possibly "onshore" more production of heavy crude.
The long-held theory by some that he's wrecking the economy for insider trading also doesn't make sense, because his favoured allies like Musk are losing tons of money right now, and an "insider trading" strategy would be much more regularly spaced rather than changing by-the-hour.
That leaves, by deduction, only a few possibilities:
* Trump really is intentionally wrecking the economy, for known or unknown reasons:
* He's wrecking the economy by instruction from a foreign agent (e.g. Putin - certainly indirect evidence exists)
* He's wrecking the economy because his donors told him to (e.g. Musk, other billionaires - unlikely because why would they want that? They would rather have the stock market go straight up, right?)
* He's wrecking the economy so that his "friends" can trade on the market with insider information (see above - seems unlikely based on the pattern)
* He's wrecking the economy so that his "friends" can buy things cheaply (would have been plausible but for the widespread collateral damage he's causing)
* Trump actually genuinely believes in tariffs (he's a product of the 80s after all)
* Trump actually genuinely hates Mexico, Canada, Europe, and China (seems plausible based on his personality and that of his political base)
* Trump really has no idea what he's doing (judge for yourself)
I suspect they only have 4 years.
If you look at them as an attack on the US, everything makes a lot more sense.
Foreign government's have an easy solution to solve the problem.
Don't unfairly advantage your goods and services against American products and we won't do the same. Free trade shouldn't mean "Free trade for one side". Free trade should be contingent on reciprocity, both in terms of social and economic alignment.
Trump stated that the Canadian tariffs were a reaction to fentanyl crossing the Canadian border into the US.
That has nothing to do with trade fairness or Canadian protectionism.
By now it's clear that "fair" in this administration is defined by whoever is the biggest bully in the room, so
> unfairly advantage your goods and services against American products
is just a fancy way to say: "let us push you around."
The US just isn't planning things anymore and trying to justify it makes people look silly.