Tesla is done in Europe for political/cultural reasons. Tesla is done in Asia for competitive reasons but I think that Cybertrucks could be the nail in the coffin for even the most MAGA brainwashed Elon fan, once they drive it…
But yes; Tesla's primary remaining competitive advantage was its brand -- which Musk has done an amazing job at eroding lately.
We are witnessing Elon’s house of cards coming down. Remember Elon Musk has massive loans with Tesla as collateral and a collapse of Tesla’s share price will absolutely affect his other ventures.
Unfortunately probably SoaceX as well. But think medium term this could be a good thing - new space is thriving and do we really need a gorilla in the room?
Not being a fun of Musk as a person (as I am not fun of B. Gates or S. Jobs) I do appreciate that he delivered a breakthrough in at least two industries that were considered staled, unapproachable and closed to existing players (space and automoto). So I will give that Cybertruck a benefit of doubt.
FWIW I was an early investor in TSLA, back in 2012. I made 30x my initial investment. I lived the company and was a big fan of Elon until something happened to his brain.
I have observed this company for a long, long time.
He has mislead both investors and customers for years, but his recent behavior and statements have been, at the very least, odd. Even disregarding politics, I don’t believe that he is steering Tesla in the right direction, and he is not behaving as a responsible or serious CEO with a clear meaningful vision for the company, or as someone who even cares about it.
Not sure if something happened to his brain, but it doesn’t feel normal, calm or rational.
I sold the last shares I had this winter.
Is it possible -- Yes, but not super likely in the near term.
Most other manufacturers currently have a P/E ratio around 10. Tesla is around 120. Yes, you read that right --- about 12X higher than the competition.
To justify it's current valuation, Tesla would have to capture a majority of the global market and become the world's most popular car brand. It currently has around 12% of the global market.
In my opinion, what Tesla has to offer just isn't that good and is being rapidly surpassed.
https://electrek.co/2025/03/13/mercedes-cla-ev-finally-here-...
Like you, I don't think it makes sense, but apparently the market sees it differently.
And until that perception changes, I don't think the valuation will drop to less than half.
The thing is that 90 percent of their revenue is from auto sales.
https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-manufacturers/tesla-q...
Meanwhile, the majority of their stock price is pure hype.
Tesla is no longer a "growth stock". Most industry observers are predicting a significant decline in sales for the current quarter. There is no reasonable data or even projected data to support a 12x valuation.
Elon famously derided the investors who'd caused this situation. He was livid at them, and also at the SEC for allowing what he considered to be unfair, if not illegal, conduct on the part of short-sellers. A stock that is heavily short-sold can have its price drop to the point that financing is difficult to obtain, sounding the death knell for that business. But it looks like that came back to bite shorts when Tesla survived.
This is definitely a bit of a crackpot theory without some numerical analysis to back it up, but mindless "pure hype" seems a less compelling explanation for the valuation we see than financial/securities shenanigans, especially after what happened with Gamestop.
Which only further enhances the overall point, there is no reasonable auto marketplace data (actual or even projected) to support the current valuation.
The "Magnificent 7" should really only be 6 with Tesla being the odd one out.
Some of the reports on it from stock market "analysts" are almost comical and often rely on an appeal to tradition --- it's always been this way. Exactly the sort of nonsense cold hard "analysis" is supposed to cut through.
It's as if there is some significant pressure to emotionally support the big investors that are heavily bought in.
I have a friend who owns a Cybertruck, and he let me give it a try. There are many, many, many legitimate and damning criticisms of Cybertruck, Tesla, and Musk, but the Cybertruck driving experience (on pavement) is not one of them. It is crazy fast, and surprisingly nimble with its 4-wheel drive-by-wire steering. It is dangerous and stupid, but it isn't boring.
Speaking as a lifelong driving enthusiast, I would never buy one, but I'm glad I got to try one.
Deadly for pedestrians, cyclists and other small cars on the road. The perfect creation out of the wet dream of a self-absorbed billionaire.
[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_scBKKHi7WQ [video][10 mins]
[2] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PK_EJ3DyiiA [video][21 mins]
was 10,500 lbs, done by JerryRigEverything
In reference to the frame I can not even imagine breaking a frame. All my offroad and utility vehicles have had a steel frames that at worst might bend if I go all whistlindiesel on it. A big enough pothole can put a lot of stress on a frame. To me personally it feels like there is some similarity between the Tesla design philosophies and the OceanGate Titan submersible both of which needed significantly more stress testing.
i'm not saying dont post his links or anything, just giving some perspective for HN folks who might not be familiar with his shtick.
[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7uzYsRbukw [video][18 mins]
Now I find most groups to be fake on the outside and once one joins the true faces start to show. So I guess I like to see those groups exposed for who they are to prevent people from mistakenly joining them unless of course that is their thing.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91109879/a-timeline-of-tesla-cyb...
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/waiting-o...
Also, quite a few of those F-series recalls are for very specific engine configurations.
Many of those recalls are also for relatively minor things. Some of those recalls are for labels not being in the right location.
Point is ever car has loads of recalls, some don't get clicks so aren't reported much
If Cybertruck marketing claims it to be a truck - I’d like to see it perform in said capacity like a truck would. My F250 tows 8,000 lbs travel trailer as an example. I am yet to see one towed by Cybertruck.
> Still love the truck, thanks Elon!
But that is not what we are talking about here, are we? We are talking about bad engineering and manufacturing.
It is like you are saying my girlfriend is great in bed but being blind to the fact that she is stealing all your money.
I didn’t buy my truck because of Elon, I bought it because I needed a truck and all the other truck manufacturers are completely brain dead when it comes to software.
I definitely wish Elon would shut up often, but he’s clearly not a nazi. That’s all nonsense.
His work at doge has been underwhelming so far, I had higher hopes. But it seems like most would rather have the status quo of major deficit spending and debt. Overall I would prefer drastic reduction in spending and waste with an actual plan and less chaos.
None of what Elon does makes me regret my car purchase. Why in the world would I make a personal decision like a car based on some billionaire I’ll never meet? I didn’t buy the truck as any kind of virtue signal. I bought it because I like it despite how dumb and crazy it looks.
Musk: homeless are "violent drug zombies with eyes devoid of life"[2]
Musk: people making use of federal programs are part of "parasite class"[3]
Musk: testifying against the president is "treason" and the witness should be executed[4]
Musk: the AfD is great, Hitler was a communist[5], and public sector employees caused the Holocaust[6]
Musk: racist staffers are more than welcome in DOGE[7]
Musk: George Floyd's killer ought to be pardoned[8]
Musk: empathy is causing the destruction of Western civilization[9]
Musk: doxxing for me[10], but not for thee[11]
Musk: war veteran who visited Ukraine is a "traitor"[12]
I mean, if this was just some idiot schlub ranting on social media, perhaps I'd consider buying their products if it was a life or death situation. But this guy sits next to the president of the United States and evidently has the power to enact his fucked up policies. Personally, I see any action that gives him an iota of additional power as deeply unethical.
[1]: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/15/elon-musk...
[2]: https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/47518975/musk-claims-that-t...
[3]: https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/us-news/parasite-class...
[4]: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
[5]: https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-far-right-german-leade...
[6]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/14/elon...
[7]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/02/07/jd-v...
[8]: https://www.rawstory.com/derek-chauvin-2671265779/
[9]: https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/05/politics/elon-musk-rogan-inte...
[10]: https://www.distractify.com/p/elon-musk-posts-judge-daughter
[11]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2025/02/04/doge-empl...
[12]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2025/03/13/...
In 2025 in my own country the Netherlands several Chinese companies have entered the market and there are non Tesla supercharger stations. We are now in the "tough competition" stage.
I don't think this is true. For example the Nissan Leaf has always been more affordable. But the range of the first Leaf models was very low. Tesla was the first EV company that offered a range comparible to ICE cars.
When Tesla was new, EV range was inherently expensive, the original Leaf was only able to be affordable because the battery was small.
Now, batteries are so cheap this is no longer a trade-off; also why new Leaf models are longer range.
I don’t know anything about Tesla or EVs or Europe. But is there a precedence to this? That a good product went extinct because of political/cultural reasons?
They were among the first and the cars were good enough to persuade people, but there are many alternatives now. People are less likely to pay a premium for Tesla.
And the brand is irremediably damaged by Elon’s polarising politics.
Being off-putting to a large part of your market is bound to have negative effects on your sales.
But all of that is not real, it is, at best speculative, and the cars themselves are not great, especially when compared to other EVs.
The huge valuation of Tesla will crumble dramatically as soon as investors stop believing the promises. And having poor/declining or even stagnating sales is very likely to trigger some close scrutiny and doubts.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlyon/2025/02/20/tesla-cybe...
There's size and weight.
Rounded edges for any protruding parts.
Crumple zones.
Light bar has visibility and illumination issues.
The 0-60 mph speed of 2.6 seconds combined with a weight of 6000 lbs puts its torque in super car territory.
---
I doubt you'll see one outside people playing with the rules at the edge of legality. https://www.jalopnik.com/a-barely-modified-tesla-cybertruck-...
https://electrek.co/2025/03/14/tesla-is-done-in-germany-94-s...
But on the plus side Ted Cruz is putting in work to bring their cool factor up https://x.com/tedcruz/status/1900588329609163164
No, and saying that makes me think you never tried. Its a fun rocketship. External size, being shaped specifically to kill pedestrians, cracking plastic fantastic components, weight related accelerated wear, falling off panels and finally nazi association are its main problems.
Reports of Tesla cars being awful and full of problems have been around for a decade, but the people I've directly spoken to like their Teslas, though none own a Cybertruck.
And 6 months in, I cannot complain. I would have spent $15k+ more on a Highlander or RX and I don't think I would have gotten any extra utility (other than CarPlay), and I would have gotten much worse torque. And I would have had to wait on a list for when Toyota randomly sent the color and model we wanted, and we would have had to bat down attempts by the dealer to charge more, and spend 3+ hours at the dealership.
Yes, and those political/cultural reasons are: let's not subsidise people who repeatedly and in public make unambiguous Nazi salutes.
TBH it would be nice if those sentiments were spread a bit more widely than Europe.
Then again I don’t see how can someone seriously say stuff like that, in what way is modern VW related to nazis?
This is not serious stuff, indeed.
And was anyone from Volkswagen making excuses for Hitler yesterday: https://meidasnews.com/news/elon-musk-retweet-hitler-didnt-m...
Ford might be a better example, as there's been some continuity of ownership/control there, but, well, Henry Ford is, thankfully, extremely dead. Again, that does make a difference.
Until then, I don't think it's fair to whitewash the Tesla brand with the brush that allowed the successful rehabilitation of German and Japanese industry. Elon Musk is already the eugenicist face of the destruction of USAID (>1M deaths/ year) and positioned to deploy an orbital constellation of weaponized satellites with offensive capabilities (Golden Dome). Do we really need to play this one out? It ends with tens or hundreds of millions dead, has the pursuit of money blinded so many of us to our shared humanity?
I don’t really get this.
So if we continue with this, logically Germany (and even Britain due to other reasons) should dissolve itself because it is permanently tainted as a country?
One of the reasons US seceded from Britain is because they wanted to steal more land from the natives and weren’t allowed to. It’s a country that’s basically founded on genocide (and not much better than VW)
This is getting absurdly idiotic including on HN, which is really a shame.
I haven't seen anything that would tell me that these are very smart people. But what it tells me is that they are just NOT very very dumb.
You could also buy a Hyundai Ioniq 5 or 6 directly on Amazon (even though the implementation still goes through dealerships in the backend) [1].
[1] https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/retail/amazon-autos-buy-car...
I didn't know Hyundai sold online, but that's good news. If only their prices were $20k lower. There is no way I am paying $55k+ for a Hyundai, especially without a $7,500 tax credit compared to a Tesla.
I just checked Tesla inventory, and they have 3 row (5 adults + 2 kids) 2024 Model Y AWD Long Ranges for $39k to $41k (with tax credit) on their website right now.
Rivian's spin off to licence their OS may end up being the Android of cars to Tesla's iOS
What must your world look like that you consider a 30K off-lease car a poor person’s last resort vehicle….
It might surprise you - as having never owned an EV before - I turned to Tesla because I thought of it as buying a trend-setting vehicle from a pioneering car maker that envisioned what next generation transportation might be unanchored to tradition - rather than risking buying a half-baked me-too attempt at a market-share catchup from a legacy brand.
Whether I was ultimately correct in these expectations is a different conversation, but I think one might see how I may have thought that knowing little about EV?
edit: obviously it’s not a car for poor people as it is still very expensive. I understand your point too.
It was clear to me since the incident with the English diver in 2018 which direction Elon took. I was observing him very carefully as a techno messiah before, very interesting personality and his companies. I wasn’t fan, it was just something new and never seen before.
And I had a moral dilemma back then. Support Elon buying Tesla or pay 15000€ more for Skoda… I just went with Elon. And now I am cool with that. Remember dieselgate? VW managers paid a company to gas apes with diesel fumes in US (because such tests are illegal in EU). God knows what did elsewhere. VW isn’t better by any means, just less press coverage.
What a sentence.
It looks like some didn't get the humor ;)