Mercedes-Benz Drives Toward Solid-State EV Batteries
spectrum.ieee.org
spectrum.ieee.org
I remember reading about attempts to commercialise EUV lithography in the early 2000s (in a paper magazine!) The same issues that SSB have now - some lucky examples from tiny yields in the lab, but the devil's own problem to scale it and develop reliable manufacturing.
ASML was able to commercialise it in 2018. I expect the timeline for SSB to be about the same, twenty years or so. I think we will see it but not until the 2030s.
>Large-scale adoption of all-solid-state batteries may not happen until after 2030, BYD's battery business CTO said https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1iq5ukh/b...
And that is already pushing the limits of my bladder. I can't imagine ever wanting to drive further than that without stopping.
The EV critics would say that you can empty your bladder much faster than the car can charge its battery.
Personally though for ranges that exceed 350-400 miles, I would typically consider flying (or taking the train if those are fast) anyway.
I get to take multiple people, more cargo, leave whenever I want, and when I get there I have a car.
I still would not rent an EV when traveling.
Larger vehicles (buses, trucks) need more battery. Towing requires more battery.
Fewer stops out of the necessity to charge is a good thing.
Those have been around for a while. There are already prototype full solid state cells. Nobody has a good production process yet.
Given it has such high military value and those customers can pay very well, I predict that they will see the first uses of this tech.
I think electrifying the trains is still worth doing, but if we want to reduce CO2 emissions and dependence on fossil fuels, it's not as important as getting those diesel-powered trucks off the road somehow.
That's why electric truck will save them $250k per year in diesel.
Of course it requires massive capital investment, a modal shift for the last mile, and it's somewhat inflexible.
I still don't see why PHEVs aren't a thing in Semis so you can get regen braking, torque, efficiency, and range, but what do I know.
Efficiency certainly isn't unimportant but fast charging can overcome it.
I would also argue that EVs can't succeed unless fast charging overcomes efficiency. For EVs to succeed and overtake ICE vehicles they need to work for vehicles that are inherently inefficient, such as minivans, 3-row family SUVs, trucks, and commercial vans.
This is especially true since large vehicles are often the most profitable in the US.
All three are important and sure you can somewhat brute-force either aspect, but ultra fast charging stations are not as prevalent as you think it is. Most stations are still 50kW, but there are few 150kW. 250kW and more are still super rare.
And again efficiency is important but EVs won't succeed unless they can include inefficient vehicles that are a necessity or a strong preference for many buyers, which is why 250kW+ charging stations are important if the US is ever going to adopt EVs as a full ICE replacement.
If I need a truck with an 8 foot bed and a body-on-frame vehicle to carry building supplies to my commercial property that I own across state lines and it currently gets 20mpg using the most advanced ICE technology on the market, I'm going to need 250kW+ chargers available if I'm ever going to replace that vehicle with an EV. Doubly so if I need to tow a trailer.
I'd bet $10 that China is well-covered with 1000kW charging within 10 years.
We already have laws.
We'll hit that point soon enough (if we haven't already with some nice truck that hasn't crossed my newsfeed). In the meantime, there's lots of shorter haul trucking routes, and routes with access to fast chargers half way (300 mile electric semis definitely exist), to convert.
The slots-in-the-road approach is a bit more expensive, but it can be used by cars and trucks, whereas the overhead lines are just for trucks.