Comment by iteratethis | Hacker News Reader

Comment by iteratethis | Hacker News Reader

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You need to separate intent from messaging, it's how the game is played.

The US is taking a strong lead in brokering a deal. It got Ukraine and the EU to make large concessions (mineral deal, extra EU defense spending) to signal to the US that they are serious about peace and serious about heavily contributing to it to make it possible.

If Russia's public answer to this is: NO, I will not even lift a finger, then they open themselves up to US scrutiny because they admitted they are 100% unwilling.

As you rightfully put, they are already unwilling, but saying it is another thing. It's much better to go into a peace negotiation suggesting you're willing, than to block any talks at all.

What does US scrutiny look like? I have no idea. It could mean more sanctions, more weapon deliveries. Or it could mean nothing at all. I can't read this administration, it's so random.

We'll see.

But Ukraine and the EU haven't actually made any concessions at all. There is no mineral deal -- yesterday they merely agreed that they will try to negotiate a mineral deal. And the EU hasn't raised defense spending out of any agreement or concession with or to the US -- they're talking about raising spending because the US seems to be pulling out, because of the absence of a deal.

> It's much better to go into a peace negotiation suggesting you're willing, than to block any talks at all.

Why? They've made it clear that they're willing provided Ukraine makes a bunch of concessions that Ukraine won't make. This is asking for an unconditional ceasefire, which Russia has been clear for years is off the table. And it would disadvantage them militarily. They have no reason to change their position -- for them, peace talks require preconditions, and Ukraine (rightly) rejects all of them.

What Russia wants is just that...a want. Their position where they allow for no compromises is a bluff where they bet nobody dares to call their bluff. Which might be a good bet, we'll see.

It's not a bluff, though. A bluff would have been making threats and then not invading Ukraine.

But Russia invaded Ukraine. They've been at war for three years. Putin is entirely prepared to continue. There's no bluff here. Putin is being entirely serious about his conditions to end the war peacefully, because if he doesn't get them he has zero problems with continuing the war to try to get what he wants by force.

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