Trump Says He Will Raise Canada Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50% | Hacker News Reader

Trump Says He Will Raise Canada Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50%

wsj.com

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It's a bit glib, but too good to not share.

We're experiencing the Katy Parry doctrine:

'Cause you're hot, then you're cold

You're yes, then you're no

You're in, then you're out

You're up, then you're down

You're wrong when it's right

It's black and it's white

We fight, we break up

We kiss, we make up

"Ontario suspending 25% surcharge on provincially generated electricity purchased by U.S. states"

https://www.cbc.ca/lite/story/1.7480234

Yeah, our provincial Premier talks a tough-game, but he is always quick to walk things back. Now he gets to travel to DC and "negotiate", with one of Trump's underlings - the Premier does not have the legal mandate to negotiate a federal agreement (USMCA) - however, a federal minister is also attending - but until our new Prime Minister fully takes on the role and our parliament comes back in session, doubtful they will do anything. We will see what happens Thursday or Friday - other schools of thought may indicate the Doug (Ontario Premier) and federal leadership had a talk to not provoke the bear any further - as these "51st state" comment and directions from Trump are escalating.

if the US stock market falls further, is there a point at which congress will consider doing something about it?

"do something" as in impeachment? Absolutely not. If Dems sweep in the midterms, maybe. He has sycophants everywhere now, even in Congress.

How exactly are you going to be able to trust elections at this point? I don’t mean as some kind of conspiracy theorist but in a very practical sense that I can’t think of any meaningful controls or external oversight mechanisms that I could point to.

They were literally one of the very first things he got rid of and now all of the voting infrastructure is controlled at the state level by partisans who have shown loudly and clearly that they have no interest in playing fair.

Putting all of your eggs in the free and fair elections category is genuinely not a credible plan at this point.

We have election monitors and real-time tabulation of results at precincts (mostly). Some states have recounts of a random subset of ballots with election monitors to verify results.

And of course, the Federal government isn't involved in the logistics of voting at all. It's run by thousands of local governments.

You are repeating back the precise problem as though it were a solution. That’s exactly what makes it extremely likely that there will be problems

Nothing like the belief that you would be pardoned to make you feel comfortable breaking the law for your favorite convict. I’m sure he will encourage this view with his speech, blah blah “J6 patriots” and what not, without explicitly saying he will pardon anyone.

No. That's what makes it much more difficult to attack at scale compared to centralized voting systems.

You can't stuff hundreds of ballot boxes without election monitors noting the discrepancy in number of voters. Even if you could, you can't add more ballots than people visited without the election monitors noticing or remove them for the same reason.

Since voter names are crossed off and publicly recorded as voting, stuffing a ballot also box risks discovery if that person tries to vote or sees themselves on the list.

Since votes are tallied and reported as counts happen at the precinct level, again, with election monitors, there's no easy place to alter votes. The sum of the precinct totals has to be the final result.

Then there are the automatic recounts which have to match the originals or one risks discovery.

The only real scalable attack is through electronic voting machines without a paper trail - which is why they should be banned. Well that and any ranked choice races for the areas that have them (since they have to be tallied centrally and aren't auditable in any reasonable way). Anything else has a high risk of discovery.

This all relies on non partisan election monitors and external oversight which is the exact opposite of the new reality.

At the end of the day, that is the purpose of states controlling their own voting. It is why the electoral college exists, not for the people’s votes to determine the president, but for the State’s representatives to determine the president. This is the downside of that design.

The Republican controlled congress is fully complicit. The CR they're voting on includes a provision that preemptively surrenders their ability to restrict Trump's tariff boondoggle.

https://bsky.app/profile/fritschner.bsky.social/post/3lk4eyq...

If Trump had a single strategic idea, he's crazy enough that he could probably play his big hand to get any concessions he wants. Unfortunately, he's got a single tool and he thinks that waving it at every problem will help him win (he won't) what he perceives as a zero-sum game (it isn't).

He holds a lot of cards, but he's making the mistake of thinking he holds all of them. It'll be painful for us former US allies, but it's going to be fatal for the future of the US.

This is nothing but a Farquaadian bargain for America.

Great reference!

>Lord Farquaad's appearance [in the film Shrek] may be inspired by Michael Eisner, the then-CEO of The Walt Disney Company, owing to producer Jeffrey Katzenberg's animosity toward his former employer. Others had noticed a resemblance to Richard III of England. The name Farquaad is thought to be a way to get away with saying "fuckwad" in a family-friendly film. Farquaad happens to be similar to the surname of film animator Mark Farquhar. Some think Farquaad was based on the 7th US President, Andrew Jackson, as he forced a group from their land (Jackson signed the Indian Removal Act in 1830).

https://dreamworks.fandom.com/wiki/Lord_Farquaad

But a useless summation when everyone has internet. To clarify, I mean that it was lot of words with no meaning behind why you particularly think it was a “good reference”.

Mr Trump added, "the only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear." - bbc version of the story https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/articles/c99n7gmkmzzo

Yeah. That would give Canada two senators, and a large number of representatives. And I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be Republicans.

Are you really sure you want that, Mr. Trump?

... and considering we have one Province that is a very distinct culture (Quebec), plus a very large indigenous territory (Nunavut) - I think that things would fracture immediately...

At what point does the 51st state stuff raise concerns in Republicans!? Is there any hope in that direction? Or is a self inflicted economic crash a foregone thing, at this point?

Republicans want this, and are afraid - not necessarily of Trump and the administration - but their constituents.

They want to be in charge. But even now that they are, they can't control their own leadership's ambition to be written about. It is truly maddening how they maintain the claim on the party of values. What would it take to get them to show some?

guns

They have plenty - but the only place that they seem to regularly exercise their "2A rights" is in schools...

Why only 1 extra state? And will we up the number of US Representatives to accommodate?

Regardless on the details, it is a ludicrous talking point that shows no respect to a large ally. Quite the contrary. It makes no sense and serves absolutely no purpose. At best, it betrays a severe lack of understanding on several topics. Yet here we are having to give it time it does not deserve.

It is attempting to launder and manufacturer consent and tolerance for the idea. Edit: You can think of it as testing the appetite for moving the Overton Window [1] on the subject.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window

Now in Canada we have people driving around with US flags and TRUMP stickers on their cars.. there are several communities that have formed backing this idea, in seeing slogans such as “Free Alberta” and “Alberta 51” as well as an ongoing narrative that Canada is no longer a nation and we have no more borders.

If Trunps plans was to disrupt Canadians internal politics, he has certainly succeeded.

Additioanllly the Liberal party had leveraged this whole thing to distract people from its own failures during critical election time by framing US as our enemy and attempting to win votes against conswervatives.

The whole situation is unhinged.

wag the dog distraction while they plunder the US Fed Gov and tank the economy.

Putin gets a neutered US military-political machine, while US oligarchs, who've seen insane, unprecedented growth in the last 5 years, can then just buy up everything on the cheap. everyone else can suck it.

It makes perfect sense when you use the logic of expansion and imperialism - this is the same type of talk that Putin has used for more than a decade with Ukraine, and the same type of speech that a certain German leader used about Austria many decades ago.

Non-voting representatives, possibly. "51st state" is just a marketing term, the reality would be a territory ala Puerto Rico or Guam, thought likely with more limited rights.

The reality would be a never-ending insurgency.

https://archive.ph/1J2L6

This doesn't appear to be the article that is linked?

They seem to have rewritten the article on the same url.

Looks like WSJ edited the article. It's now:

Trump Drops Threat to Double New Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum

For those who (like me) were bewildered by the claptrap coming out of Trumps mouth regarding 51st state and "owning Greenland", I listened to a podcast that made the case that:

a) since China has essentially supplanted the WorldBank/IMF in providing loans to a lot of the "global south" specifically Africa

b) and since the US Empire essentially needs to keep growing in order to maintain solvent

c) and Russia/China are really bullish on the Northern sea routes - they have icebreakers all ready to open channels in an already weakened polar ice

Suddenly Canada and Greenland have outsized geopolitical importance as those might become trade hubs in a climate changed world.

Or, easily aggrieved, petulant chaos monkey with a penchant for bullying flings poo because...reasons.

That seems to correlate better with observational evidence.

Russia has been planning for utilizing arctic routes for a while now. there was at least one Russian oligarch (Igor Sechin of Rosneft) essentially championing global warming for that reason.

So basically don't look up and planing to mine a comet about to destroy the Earth.

There won't be any trade in a climate changed world.

Why not?

That sounds like sanewashing Trump. Just consider this: if Greenland has a such a strategic importance to the US, all the US had to do is to ask Denmark nicely to house a dozen more US military bases there, and Denmark (pre-Trump) would've been happy to follow along.

All Trump did was to make sure that Greenland will not see another US base in the near future. Which would, when you think about it, make Russia quite happy if Greenland is strategically important.

It's worth parsing out valid whys any approach could be applied, from the whys that drove the approach chosen.

For example, in my opinion Trump seems distinct in recent world politics. Instead of power being expressed through relationships, cultural exports and economics, Trump's notion of power is expressed through the property you have, how it looks, and that it is used or how it is used.

That example would be a theory that explains why the approach of "51st state" or "Rivera of the Middle East" is chosen.

(Though there is more you could theorize here: from ego, urgency, or trolling, to things like strategically preemptively folding on competing in a multipolar economic world and settling for simply western hemisphere sole influence and control)

Here's the problem. Western liberal leaders aren't leaders but career ladder climbers. Their new PM. Oxford grad, Goldman Sachs banker. They are resume elitists who don't have the risk taking spirit to protect their countries sovereignty.

If I were PM of Canada I would publicly announce that Canada would have Chinese and Russian nuclear missile silos on Canadian soil before becoming an American state.

TBH why would China or Russia care? US absorbing Canada justifies all current and future land grabs. Carney is interim leader, but really who can Canadians put in charge without backfiring. At this point, easier to put a hot chick in office and have her seduce Barron Trump and deal with family politics than geopolitics.

^ this is the level of HN discourse these days

You're talking about Canada nuclearizing in US backyard which frankly is more delulu discourse than felating Trump to buy time.

A French nuclear submarine did a surprise visit in Halifax today.

Security theatre. The chance of France providing Canada a credible nuclear unmbrella is zero. The chance of Canada nuclearizing without triggering both sides in US is zero.The chance of Canada out strongmanning Trump is zero. The only realstic play Canada has is kiss ass for the next few years, but not Poilievre tier milhouse energy kiss ass.

Curious, would you of 2 months ago waive away a French nuclear sub making a show of force visit against the USA at a Canada port?

The notion that french sub can show off force vs CONUS in halifax is just inherently not credible, even as security theatre. It's a nice gimme to those looking to huff some hopium. NATO sans US have their hands full figuring out if they can give UKR security, idea they can do shit all for CAN is too unserious to entertain.

That's not an answer to my question. If two months ago you were told a French nuclear submarine would make a show of force in a Canadian harbor in response to US aggression against Canada would you just have waived it all away as a nothing burger?

As Canadian, I predicted 2 months ago Trump was going to slap the shit out of Canada and the only way to avert was to replace Trudeau with someone that Trump can chum with and best bet for Canada is to obsequious with least impact on Canadian interests.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42616089

If pressed I would have predicted delulu Atlantacist who can't eat crow for domestic politics would try to virtue signal some sort of defiant solidarity, even though on paper their ability to assist Canada is nothing burger tier. Again, I would not categorize this as show of force - it's hopium - the idea that NATO sans US can park enough firepower around Canada to stop US armor companies from daytripping down highways connected to all Canadian urban centres is not serious.

It's an attack sub, it doesn't carry any nuclear weapons.

The attack subs don't give away their locations. The message is still sent.

It looks like the timing is just coincidence. Canada is currently deciding on buying a new type of submarine, and the group that builds the French subs has entered the competition.[0] In addition, the submarine in question is in the final phase of testing before being accepted into service[1]. So a trans-Atlantic crossing, plus testing in the arctic under/around ice.

[0] https://actu.fr/normandie/cherbourg-en-cotentin_50129/sous-m...

[1] https://actu.fr/normandie/cherbourg-en-cotentin_50129/un-sou...

Funnily enough, this happened during the Civil War... with a Russian warship

https://www.historynet.com/us-russian-alliance-civil-war/

> The reasons for the fleet’s visit remain open to interpretation. While there is little doubt that the Russian government saw it as an opportunity to display its support for the Lincoln administration, considerable self-interest was also at work. The Russians were anxious to avoid their misfortune of 10 years earlier when the British and French navies had been able to trap the Russian fleet in the Baltic during the Crimean War. Should war now break out over the Russians’ brutal suppression of a revolt in Poland, the czar wanted his fleet to be available and in position to raid enemy shipping. The voyage to North America also provided opportunities to demonstrate the Russian navy’s capabilities and to observe the Union ironclads that promised to revolutionize maritime warfare.

"western liberal leaders" love that. hnpolicestate, a 10 month old account with only 200 karma and a lot of anti-immigration sentiment (but still loves busting "western" topics).

listen: Canada is British Commonwealth and could theoretically get UK, or maybe French (via NATO) nukes before they'd ever consider Chinese or Russian nuclear silos.

Or just build them themselves -- SK is the 2nd largest source of uranium globally, and launching a nuke into the US doesn't require terribly complex technology.

CANDU ! We have a great reactor technology which we export worldwide, am sure that we could work with UK/NATO to develop things further, if necessary.

You were saying?

"The French nuclear submarine FS Tourville photographed in Halifax Harbour today.

I'm not sure when a French submarine last visited Canada. I certainly believe this is the first time a Suffren-class boat has been to Halifax."

https://x.com/CDNPolicyHawk/status/1899184320092233883

I think we would want French submarines, and assistance from the UK/EU/NATO group long before China and Russia - after all, with the US strengthening it's ties to Russia, that makes absolutely no sense.

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