If the average person has still not ridden a self driving car, assembled by figure 02 style robots, though a drive thru with AI ordering, then we aren't even close to seeing the real peak here.
>100x growth ahead for sure.
>100x growth ahead for sure.
Huge amounts internet growth still happened after the 2000 crash, but networking gear and fiber optic networking became a commodity play, meaning the ROI shifted. The companies that survived ended up piggybacking the over-investment on the cheap, including Amazon and Google.
Even going way back, the real productive growth of the American railroads didn't happen until after the panic of 1873 after overbuilding was rationalized.
I hate to say "this time is different", but it really doesn't feel the same way, at least in public equities. nvidia has a high stock price, but they also have a P/E of ~36. Meanwhile, modern Cisco is ~27.
There might be some parallels though. OpenAI as modern Netscape might not be that far off.
Regardless of whether that distinction is useful, the author makes some fairly specific claims about inelasticity of demand, and seems only to lack confidence regarding the timing of Nvidia's fall not its inevitability.
I disagree with all of that.
But honestly, even chat apps are nowhere near their peak. Hallucinations and fine tuning issues are holding that segment back. There's a lot of growth potential there too as confidence and training help to increase adoption.