The next Canadian federal election will be no later than October 20, 2025. Possibly much sooner.

While Carney's party has seen a bump in the polls recently (thanks to Trump) which changed the predicted result from an opposition blowout to merely an opposition lead, Carney is nowhere near as good a communicator as Trudeau and will likely not do well in the polls.

It sounds like the person you’re replying to thinks Carney's Liberal Party is set to lose the upcoming election. Before Trump started going after Canada, the Conservatives seemed like a sure bet to take over Parliament. But since the tariffs came into play, the Liberals have really picked up steam. No matter where you stand politically, I think Trump isn’t the best at thinking strategically. He could have waited for the next Canadian election and probably ended up with a party in power that would be easier to negotiate with. Now, things are a lot less certain, and it could even give the Liberals a chance to come back stronger. It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Plus, it’s kind of idiotic that Trump pushed for the USMCA, which looked like a win for him, but these tariffs seem to go against the spirit of that agreement. It makes you wonder why anyone would want to deal with him in good faith moving forward.