That seems like a steal? Engineers are paid much more to do much less
Thats the biggest part everyone misses. It’s all sunshine and rainbows until in a month you realize you start asking llm to think for you and at that point the code becomes shit and degrades fast.
Like with everything else “use it or lose it”
If you don’t code yourself- you will lose the ability to properly so it very fast, and you won’t realize it until too late
Which is approximately zero companies.
For example: thirty years ago, FX trading was executed by a bunch of human traders. Then, computers arrived on the scene, which made all of them practically obsolete. Nowadays FX trading is executed by a collection of automated algorithms, being monitored by few quants.
My question is: is the software development in 2025 basically like what the foreign exchange was in the 2000s?
With industrialisation blacksmiths were replaced by assembly lines. I'm sure that blacksmiths are more flexible and capable in almost any important dimension, but the economics of factories just made more sense.
I expect that when the dust settles (assuming that the dust settles), that most software will be an industrial product. The humans involved in its creation will be engineers and not craftsmen. Today we have machinists and industrial engineers - not blacksmiths.
Quality and quality assurance processes will become more important, I also expect optimised production processes. I think a lot of the software ecosystem is a baroque set of over-engineered (or over crafted) steps and processes and this will probably be refactored.
I expect code quality metrics to be super refined. Craftsmen don't usually produce artifacts to the tolerances that our machines do now - code will be the same. I expect automated correctness proofs, specification languages, enhanced type systems to have a renaissance.
The only reason I ever got into linux at all was because I ended up with some dinky acer chromebook for school but didn't want to stop making stuff. Crouton changed my life in a small way with that.
As I branched out and got more serious, learning web development, emacs, java, I never stopped feeling so irrationally lucky that it was all free, and always would be. Coming on here and other places to keep learning. It is to this day still the lovely forever hole I can excavate that costs only my sleep and electricity.
This is all not gone, but if I was just starting now, I'd find hn and so and coding twitter just like I did 10 years ago, but would be immediately turned off by this pervasive sense that "the way to do things now" is seemingly inseparable from a credit card number and monthly charge, however small. I just probably would not of gotten into it. It just wouldn't feel like its for me: "oh well I don't really know how to do this anyway, I can't justify spending money on it!" $0.76 for 50 loc is definitely nuts, but even $0.10 would of turned me way off. I had the same thoughts with all the web3 stuff too...
I know this speaks more to my money eccentricities than anything, and I know we dont really care on here about organic weirdo self teachers anymore (just productivity I guess). I am truly not even bemoaning the present situation, everyone has different priorities, and I am sure people are still having the exciting discovery of the computer like I did on their cursor ide or whatever. But I am personally just so so grateful the timeline lined up for me. I don't know if I'd have my passion for this stuff if I was born 10 years later than I was, or otherwise started learning now. But I guess we don't need the passion anymore anyway, its all been vectorized!
Over the past year I have accomplished so much with the ever patient LLMs as my guide. It has been so much fun too. I imagine there are many others in my shoes and those that want to learn now have a much friendlier experience.
I know the feeling. We still have access to the engineering thought processes responsible for some of the most amazing software feats ever accomplished (thru source repo history and mailing lists), just with access to the Internet. Of course there's a wealth of info available for free on the web for basically any profession, but for software engineering in particular it's almost direct access to world class teams/projects to learn from.
> but would be immediately turned off by this pervasive sense that "the way to do things now" is seemingly inseparable from a credit card number and monthly charge
To be effective you still need to understand and evaluate the quality of the output. There will always be a certain amount of time/effort required to get to that point (i.e., there's still no silver bullet).
> But I guess we don't need the passion anymore anyway, its all been vectorized!
We're not running out of things that can be improved. With or without these tools, the better you get, the more of the passion/energy that gets directed at higher levels of abstraction, i.e. thinking more about what to solve, tradeoffs in approaches, etc. instead of the minute details of specific solutions.
> this pervasive sense that "the way to do things now" is seemingly inseparable from a credit card number and monthly charge
…is true, but it only applies to experienced engineers who can sculpt the whole solution using these tools, not just random code. You need the whole learning effort to be able to ground the code the slop generators make. The passion absolutely helps here.
Note this is valid today. I have concerns that I’ll have different advice in 2027…
I wonder what it means for the open source...
Jokes aside, code tools are best used in the hands of someone who is already trained and can verify bad code, and bad patterns at a glance.
AI code passes many tests. So does a lot of code written by us, for ourselves. When the code gets in front of users, especially the kind of genius users who learn how to fly by forgetting how to fall, then we learn many good habits.
Money for a computer when I was getting into it was the credit-card part of it — there were no cheap Chromebooks then. (A student loan took care of the $1200 or so I needed for a Macintosh Plus.)
I suspect that's always the way of it though. There will be an easier way throwing money at a thing and there will be the "programming finds a way" way.
Sure, I can pay google or fastmail to host a mailserver for me, but that deprives me of the joy of configuring and updating dovecot/postfix/etc, writing custom backup scripts, writing my own anti-spam tooling, etc. I want to know how all those pieces work.
Sure, I can pay kagi to search its index of webpages for me, but that deprives me of the joy of creating and running a botnet to index webpages, storing 100s of terrabytes of scraped data, and writing my own search code.
Targeting hackers is indeed a sucker's game.
As someone who works in infra and dabbles in coding, this is a continual bugbear, because often I’ll find an optimization while troubleshooting “my” problem, and the dev team is disinterested in implementing it. Their endpoints are meeting their SLO, so who cares?
I'm 90% sure you're serious, but that didn't stop me having the best belly laugh for a solid few minutes at this. Thank you.
Should they pull it off, it's not at all a bad startup to build. However, you need to now invest in a sales force that can sell to the Fortune 500. As a tech founder with no sales trope, this will be incredibly hard to pull off.
I digress, but yeah selling to devs is almost always a terrible idea since we all want to build our own stuff. That spirit may also be waning with the advent of Replit agent, Claude code and other tools.
They are often selling to IT managers against the advice of the developers and IT folks, and then they mostly don't get used because they don't actually add any value to the process.
but automating something that takes minutes to do is Larry Wall's example of programmer laziness, and is a virtue.
of course - this needs obligatory conflicting XKCD comics
automation makes you do more work: https://xkcd.com/1319/
is it worth the time to automate https://xkcd.com/1205/