It's also worth noting the S and X haven't been available in Australia for years (and I assume some other countries), which is probably a limiting factor too.
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024...
It really is a combination of better and cheaper Chinese EVs, Trump negatively impacting Australia e.g. tariffs, undermining security and Musk's antics e.g. Nazi salute etc.
New model y releasing in May.
This may not explain all of the drop off, but I’m certain this refreshed model explains some of it.
Tesla has had the slowest and most minor refresh cycles of any car marker in my lifetime and it has had a minimal impact on sales. Not sure why a refreshed Y is suddenly going to result in a 70% increase in sales.
Especially when in the next few weeks Trump/Musk are expected to start a trade war with Australia.
The thing is Tesla operates on a "continuous refresh" model, they constantly iterate on all aspects of their design.
The downside of this is it makes supply chains for spare parts an utter damn nightmare, which is why spare parts are so hard to come by.
Edit: mostly speaking about Model Y, as Model 3 had actual refresh recently.
Electric cars are getting simpler. Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries are safer. BYD has an "E-axle" kit, where motor, axle, and differential are a single unit. That goes with a power electronics box and battery.[1] Talks CANbus to the controls. Plug everything together and put a body on top, and you have a car. Or a truck.
EVs from all manufacturers are getting much cheaper. Margins are decreasing. This is a big problem for Tesla, with their grossly inflated stock price. Musk liked to say that Tesla investors are not investing in a car company, they are betting on Tesla's technology. What technology? Tesla is way behind Waymo in self-driving. There are at least four other humanoid robots as good as Tesla's, none profitable. Tesla is nowhere in solid-state batteries.
Rivian is outselling all other US makers in electric pickup trucks. Rivian's truck is not weird, like the Cybertruck, and it seems to be a decent pickup truck, although overpriced. I see them being driven around, often being used to do truck things, not just car things.
Even in the US, with protectionism keeping BYD out, Tesla isn't doing that well any more.
[1] https://insideevs.com/news/738606/byd-ev-teardown-impresses-...