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Comment by jimbokun | Hacker News Reader

Is there some fundamental constraint keeping it from happening? What cognitive capability do humans have that machines won't be able to replicate in that time frame?

Each remaining barrier has been steadily falling.

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We don't even have AI which can do useful things yet. The LLMs these companies make are fun toys, but not useful tools (yes, I know that hype-prone people are using them as such regardless). It beggars belief that we will go from "it's a fun toy but can't do real work" to "this can do things without even needing human supervision" without a major leap in capabilities.

This is certainly hyperbole. You can say current LLMs don’t match human capabilities. But people are using them for a lot of practical tasks already.

Using chatgpt to format text is a task that it can do really well and is useful. Yeah, you can write a script to do it, but chatgpt is faster and you don't need to know programming.

Continual Learning, it's a barrier that's been there from the very start and we've never had a solution to it.

There are no solutions even at the small scale. We fundamentally don't understand what it is or how to do it.

If you could solve it perfectly on Mnist just scale and then we get AGI.

What barriers have fallen? Computers still can't even drive cars

Something that requires a lot less than a PhD

PhD work might turn out to be a lot easier to automate than effectively interacting with the physical world.

Is that true? What’s the current rate of accidents per miles driven for self driving cars vs human drivers?

Even with cutting edge technology the number of transistors on a chip is nowhere close to the number of neurons in the brain.

Creativity, tastes, desires?

All the LLM tech so far still requires a human to actually prompt them.

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