Reflection – AlphaGo / Gemini team building superintelligent coding agents

It's a good way to extract as much VC money as possible. Set an outrageous goal.

3. is embrace, extend, extinguish.

If these tools get to a point where they redefine software development (they unequivocally have not redefined software lifecycles at all companies I have witnessed) then they will build up dependencies for these tools at the enterprise level while slowly ratcheting up the prices for all tiers. Finally they'll reduce alternative development options and features, requiring access to these tools to compete at a high level.

I don't think they'll ever be so good that they beat a truly great software engineer. But they'll get into the 60th or whatever percentile where they become an honest player in the off shoring conversation.

Before all this happens software engineer salaries and soft power will tank, purely off the rhetoric used as a shield so the executives can avoid the guillotine.

Remember we absolutely cannot unionize because then we'll earn less money. No matter what we must not unionize.

The cost of using their agent to replicate the same agent may be astronomical. Maybe the Reflection folks figured out that will bring them enough $$$ to retire afterwards.

Presumably:

1. They think they can control this and sell you a service that can make any app you want nearly instantly.

2. They plan to use any profit they make from the service or sale of the company and invest it in stocks/bonds/real estate after and retire before they themselves get replaced.

3. They plan to use this to keep the team small. One talking point of AI is that it could allow far fewer people to make a valuable company.

4. They don't really know what will happen in that world.

That is the question I keep asking myself. Many makes theories about getting rid of software developers. İf this can be achieved, then software companies wont exist. Every new day, there should be a new OS like windows, a new word, excel etc. So, it is not engineer shooting themself from the foot, but software companies does ?

Funny how HNers are now concerned but were all 'meh' when Silicon Valley has been trying to automate away my job for years. The world is a safer place when you take fallible humans out of the loop, don't ya know?

Do you guys wargame out the best case scenario? Like, if everything goes exactly as you plan, what is life like for an average kid born in 2030?

Who is this "she" human you are talking about?